Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 32

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Alavés C		Derio

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.25	3.7
	1.89	3.19	3.7
	1.32	4.79	8.72	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.6
	1.92	3.45	3.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.9)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	4.72 ↑ (3.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alavés C
53.3%

Draw
26.6%

Derio
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.4%

27%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.4%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alavés C has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Derio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alavés C than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derio than the current prediction. (+4%)

Alavés C - Derio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
58', 1 - 1, ⚽,
73', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90', 2 - 2, ⚽,
90+6', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 6 and 7)

Alavés C is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Derio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alavés C may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alavés C could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alavés C won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alavés C won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11
8	Alaves C	5	2	1	2	11:6	5	7

Last Results with these Odds

Derio - the odds 3.74 are the expected chance of winning is 24.58%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés C
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
16.04.26	Touring KE - Alavés C	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Alavés C - Zarautz KE	5:1 ✺
01.04.26	Alavés C - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1 ✺
28.03.26	Leioa - Alavés C	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Alavés C - Eibar C	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWTTW
- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.04.26	Derio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Leioa - Derio	0:0 ✺
01.04.26	Derio - Eibar C	2:2 ✺
28.03.26	Añorga - Derio	3:0 ✺
19.03.26	Derio - Durango	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:3
10.05.25	Alavés C - Derio	1:1
11.01.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:0
14.01.24	Alavés C - Derio	1:0

Alavés C - Derio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide