Match Info

J2 League - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Júbilo Iwata

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.20	2.05	Watch
	3.30	3.10	2.05
	3.50	3.25	1.98	Watch
	3.74	3.35	2.12
	3.36	3.31	2.16	Watch
	3.65	3.30	2.04
	3.52	3.22	2.11	Watch
	3.40	3.20	2.10
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.99)	3.24 ↑ (3.17)	2.08 ↓ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
26.6%

Draw
28.7%

Júbilo Iwata
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

28.9%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

27.9%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Júbilo Iwata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Júbilo Iwata than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	66.7%	0%

Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Baumann N. (G) 15. Hayakawa F. 77. Funaki K. 3. Kato T. 17. Shimabuku K. 8. Shirai E. 7. Onishi Y. 55. Moraes M. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 9. Iury Castilho 5. Fitzgerald M.	16. Niekawa A. (G) 37. Kawasaki I. 2. Danilo Cardoso 30. Yamazaki K. 4. Matsubara K. 15. Yuri Lara 77. Fujiwara K. 14. Ohara M. 23. Inui T. 31. Iago Teles 99. Victor J.
Substitutes
19. Hoshi Y. 6. Kasai K. 14. Konagaya C. 32. Kuwayama K. 70. Maeda R. 16. Osawa T. 30. Sekiguchi M. 71. Uchiyama S. (G)	18. Inoue S. 6. Kaneko D. 33. Kawai T. 1. Kawashima E. (G) 25. Koike N. 32. Ota R. 47. Sato D. 8. Tameda H. 36. Yoshimura R.
Coaches
Funakoshi Y.	Akiba T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Moraes M. ⚽, Onishi Y. (A),
45', Iago Teles 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Matsubara K. ↓, Yoshimura R. ↑,
46', Victor J. ↓, Ota R. ↑,
46', Ohara M. ↓, Kawai T. ↑,
59', Moraes M. 🟨,
62', 2 - 0, Iury Castilho ⚽,
62', Moraes M. ↓, Kuwayama K. ↑,
62', Wakatsuki Y. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
67', Iago Teles ↓, Sato D. ↑,
67', Inui T. ↓, Koike N. ↑,
68', Koike N. 🟨,
70', Iury Castilho ↓, Konagaya C. ↑,
81', Shimabuku K. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
81', Hayakawa F. ↓, Sekiguchi M. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Sato D. ⚽, Koike N. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ J1 League and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Albirex Niigata won 0.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Iwata holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Albirex Niigata has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:23 (averaging 1.1:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Albirex Niigata against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 8:12 goals (averaging 1.1:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Albirex Niigata	9	6	1	2	13:13	0	19
14	Iwata	9	3	1	5	11:13	-2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Júbilo Iwata - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 40.36%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J2 League
13.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Yokohama FC - Albirex Niigata	5:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Albirex Niigata	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Iwaki - Albirex Niigata	2:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Albirex Niigata - Kagoshima United	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLWWL
- Júbilo Iwata
Japan J2 League
12.09.26	Ventforet Kofu - Júbilo Iwata	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Júbilo Iwata - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Sagamihara - Júbilo Iwata	0:3 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Tochigi City - Júbilo Iwata	1:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Júbilo Iwata - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:1 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
07.08.24	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	2:2
03.04.24	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	2:0
Japan J2 League
03.11.21	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	0:1
03.07.21	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	3:2
11.11.20	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	1:1
05.09.20	Albirex Niigata - Júbilo Iwata	1:3
Japan J1 League
21.10.17	Júbilo Iwata - Albirex Niigata	2:2

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