The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alcalá 45.7%
Draw 27.3%
Navalcarnero 26.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40.5%
27.5%
32%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.4%
28.1%
31.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alcalá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alcalá's performance.
Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Navalcarnero might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (-4.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+4.4%)
Alcalá - Navalcarnero Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Alvarito ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Alvarito ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', 0 - 3, Esteban R. ⚽,
86', 1 - 3, Ato ⚽,
Preview
In recent outings, Alcalá has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Navalcarnero is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Navalcarnero may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Alcalá holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Alcalá has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 0.8:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alcalá against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
8
Navalcarnero
8
3
3
2
13:12
1
12
14
RSD Alcala
8
2
2
4
11:12
-1
8
Last Results with these Odds
Navalcarnero - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 31.96%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.
Spain
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