Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 36

Date: 11 April 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Alcione		FeralpiSalò

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.1	1.9
	3.6	3.15	2.07
	3.86	3.14	2.05	Watch
	4.2	3	1.85
	3.68	3.37	2	Watch
	3.6	3.15	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.69)	3.15 ↑ (3.07)	1.99 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
24.4%

Draw
29.2%

FeralpiSalò
46.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

30%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

30.1%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcione's form might have worsened.

FeralpiSalò has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting FeralpiSalò's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcione, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FeralpiSalò than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for FeralpiSalò, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	10%	70%

Alcione - FeralpiSalò Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Alcione will win (votes: 2 - 20%). FeralpiSalò will win (votes: 7 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for FeralpiSalò: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcione (votes: 2 - 66.7%). FeralpiSalò (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - FeralpiSalò (1.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Alcione (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcione (votes: 3 - 50%). FeralpiSalò (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agazzi F. (G) 5. Miculi A. 6. Ciappellano D. 25. Pirola F. 3. Chierichetti P. 21. Bright K. 8. Bonaiti S. 7. Renault G. 80. Bagatti N. 96. Palombi S. 11. Morselli F.	1. Rinaldi F. (G) 16. Luciani A. 5. Pasini N. 3. Rizzo A. 24. Boci B. 27. Hergheligiu D. (C) 20. Zennaro M. 11. Giudici L. 21. Cavuoti N. 10. Di Molfetta D. 17. Crespi V.
Substitutes
44. Acella C. 1. Bacchin F. (G) 94. Bertolotti F. 23. Bertoni L. 19. Caremoli T. 20. Dimarco C. 33. Invernizzi A. 16. Lanzi J. 77. Pessolani G. 17. Pio Loco A. 29. Samele L.	75. Brambilla A. 35. Cabianca E. 15. De Francesco A. 6. Di Marco T. 26. Diop S. 22. Liverani L. (G) 12. Lovato E. (G) 29. Santini C. 4. Sorensen F. 70. Tomaselli G. 63. Verzeletti M. 77. Vesentini F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Hergheligiu D. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Crespi V. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Giudici L. 🟨,
53', Bonaiti S. 🟨,
61', Renault G. ↓, Invernizzi A. ↑,
64', Ciappellano D. 🟨,
67', Cavuoti N. ↓, Di Marco T. ↑,
67', Giudici L. ↓, Cabianca E. ↑,
71', Miculi A. ↓, Dimarco C. ↑,
71', Palombi S. ↓, Samele L. ↑,
74', Crespi V. ↓, Santini C. ↑,
81', Zennaro M. ↓, De Francesco A. ↑,
81', Luciani A. ↓, Sorensen F. ↑,
82', 0 - 2, Cabianca E. ⚽,
83', Invernizzi A. 🟨,
84', Bagatti N. ↓, Acella C. ↑,
84', Morselli F. ↓, Pessolani G. ↑,
89', 0 - 3, Sorensen F. ⚽,
90', De Francesco A. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)).

FeralpiSalò is Qualified for Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/8~finals)

Recent matches Alcione is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

FeralpiSalò is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match FeralpiSalò is a favorite.

There will not play in Alcione: Invernizzi A. (Yellow Cards) Piccinocchi M. (Inactive) Stabile G. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in FeralpiSalò: Di Marco T. (Inactive) Maistrello T. (Injury) Pilati A. (Inactive) Sina S. (Inactive) Vesentini F. (Inactive)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alcione won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
06.04.25	Pro Patria - Alcione	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	Alcione - Pergolettese	2:1 ✺
22.03.25	Alcione - Pro Vercelli	1:2 ✺
17.03.25	Trento - Alcione	1:0 ✺
13.03.25	Alcione - Lecco	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 TWLLT
- FeralpiSalò
Italian Serie C Group A
05.04.25	FeralpiSalò - Lumezzane	1:1 ✺
29.03.25	Triestina - FeralpiSalò	1:2 ✺
23.03.25	FeralpiSalò - Trento	2:0 ✺
16.03.25	Atalanta U23 - FeralpiSalò	4:1 ✺
13.03.25	FeralpiSalò - Union Clodiense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
29.11.24	FeralpiSalò - Alcione	1:1

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