Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 28

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Alcione		Pergolettese

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.18	3	3.3	Watch
	2.27	2.97	3.56
	2.22	2.87	3.45	Watch
	2.2	2.75	3.25
	2.2	2.77	3.51	Watch
	2.28	2.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (1.92)	2.86 ↓ (3.14)	3.43 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
41.2%

Draw
32.1%

Pergolettese
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

29.3%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28.8%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcione's form might have worsened.

Pergolettese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcione, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pergolettese than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Alcione - Pergolettese Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Pergolettese (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pergolettese (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agazzi F. (G) 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 65. Giorgeschi S. 73. Scuderi G. 70. Bright K. 23. Galli G. 8. Muroni M. 33. Invernizzi A. 32. Tordini M. 11. Morselli F.	1. Cordaro L. (G) 33. Capoferri M. 14. Lambrughi A. 5. Milesi L. 76. Roversi L. 20. Tremolada M. 80. Jaouhari Z. 4. Arini M. 19. Pala A. 11. Corti N. 9. Petrovic T.
Substitutes
3. Chierichetti P. 81. Gallazzi F. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 18. Lopes E. 31. Marconi M. 5. Miculi A. 21. Olivieri D. 10. Pitou J. 9. Plescia V. 1. Raffaelli F. (G) 17. Rebaudo R. 7. Renault G.	3. Antolini J. 26. Bane A. 21. Careccia S. 2. Catena E. M. 22. Doldi F. (G) 6. Dore S. 10. Ferrandino D. 12. Finardi E. (G) 23. Meconi E. 70. Orlandi A. 72. Padalino A. 77. Pessolani G. 99. Rossetti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Pirola F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Muroni M. ↓, Renault G. ↑,
57', Jaouhari Z. 🟨,
59', Scuderi G. 🟨,
68', Tremolada M. ↓, Orlandi A. ↑,
68', Jaouhari Z. ↓, Careccia S. ↑,
70', Careccia S. 🟨,
73', Tordini M. 🟨,
75', Tordini M. ↓, Pitou J. ↑,
75', Scuderi G. ↓, Olivieri D. ↑,
77', Petrovic T. ↓, Ferrandino D. ↑,
84', Invernizzi A. ↓, Plescia V. ↑,
84', Morselli F. ↓, Rebaudo R. ↑,
88', Roversi L. ↓, Meconi E. ↑,
89', Corti N. ↓, Rossetti M. ↑,
90+4', Rebaudo R. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals) and 17 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Alcione is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alcione won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Alcione won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11
11	Pergolettese	9	2	5	2	5:6	-1	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
15.02.26	Vicenza Virtus - Alcione	0:1 ✺
11.02.26	Alcione - Ospitaletto	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Alcione - Union ArzignanoChiampo	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	Renate - Alcione	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Alcione - Dolomiti Bellunesi	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WTWLW
- US Pergolettese
Italian Serie C Group A
16.02.26	Pergolettese - Brescia	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Dolomiti Bellunesi - Pergolettese	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Pergolettese - Trento	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Inter U23 - Pergolettese	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Pergolettese - Ospitaletto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.3 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
11.10.25	Pergolettese - Alcione	0:2
29.03.25	Alcione - Pergolettese	2:1
16.11.24	Pergolettese - Alcione	1:2

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