Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Referee: Gianquinto E. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Alcione		Trento

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.10	3.20	2.05
	3.3	3.2	2.05	Watch
	3.42	3.35	2.09
	3.37	3.27	2.06	Watch
	3.35	3.2	2.02
	3.31	3.62	2.14	Watch
	3.25	3.25	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.85)	3.3 ↑ (3.18)	2.07 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
27.8%

Draw
27.8%

Trento
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

29.2%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.8%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Trento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trento's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trento than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trento, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Alcione - Trento Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alcione will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Trento will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Nava L. (G) 3. Chierichetti P. 25. Pirola F. 4. Miculi A. 19. Trapani N. 18. Lopes E. 23. Galli G. (C) 30. Rebaudo R. 10. Pitou J. 11. Morselli F. 98. Zini L.	1. Barlocco S. (G) 44. Maffei M. 5. Kassama S. 18. Benassai F. 3. D'Intino R. 23. Aucelli C. 6. Fossati M. (C) 80. Garetto M. 14. Sodero A. 9. Molina J. I. 21. Ladisa M.
Substitutes
2. Baldacchino S. 94. Bertolotti F. 17. Braida A. 6. Ciappellano D. 81. Gallazzi F. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 31. Marconi M. 67. Mocchi T. 8. Muroni M. 21. Parlati S. 20. Puzzoli G. 1. Raffaelli F. (G) 14. Rolfini A. 5. Sadotti E.	11. Accornero F. 8. Benedetti G. 95. Caia F. 66. Castelli M. 29. Fiamozzi R. 27. Frison F. 37. Genco A. 22. Goller E. (G) 73. Grossi J. 25. Mehic A. 19. Muca Z. 12. Santer L. (G) 99. Sartori F. 4. Trainotti A.
Coaches
Cusatis G.	Tabbiani L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Zini L. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, Molina J. I. ⚽, D'Intino R. (A),
33', Trapani N. 🟨,
35', Chierichetti P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Aucelli C. ⚽, D'Intino R. (A),
59', Zini L. ↓, Rolfini A. ↑,
62', 2 - 2, Rolfini A. ⚽, Chierichetti P. (A),
70', Kassama S. 🟨,
70', Garetto M. ↓, Mehic A. ↑,
70', Maffei M. ↓, Fiamozzi R. ↑,
71', Rebaudo R. 🟨,
75', Rebaudo R. ↓, Lanzi J. ↑,
82', Lanzi J. 🟨,
82', Ladisa M. ↓, Benedetti G. ↑,
82', Sodero A. ↓, Accornero F. ↑,
86', Galli G. ↓, Sadotti E. ↑,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 5th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals)).

Alcione has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Trento shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Alcione may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Trento holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Alcione has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 0.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alcione against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 2:1 goals (averaging 1:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Trento	8	3	5	0	11:5	6	14
8	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Trento - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 38.25%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
27.09.26	AlbinoLeffe - Alcione	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Alcione - Brescia	0:4 ✺
17.09.26	Pro Vercelli - Alcione	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Folgore Caratese - Alcione	2:3 ✺
07.09.26	Alcione - Treviso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TLTWT
- AC Trento SCSD
Italian Serie C Group A
26.09.26	Pergolettese - Trento	0:0 ✺
21.09.26	Trento - Pro Vercelli	4:0 ✺
17.09.26	Giana Erminio - Trento	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Trento - Brescia	0:0 ✺
07.09.26	Trento - Lecco	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
04.04.26	Trento - Alcione	1:0
30.11.25	Alcione - Trento	2:0
17.03.25	Trento - Alcione	1:0
02.11.24	Alcione - Trento	0:1

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