Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 15

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo (Alcorcón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Alcorcón		Eldense

	1	X	2
	2.38	2.9	2.88
	2.48	2.72	3.1
	2.63	2.72	3.51
	2.54	2.65	3.35	Watch
	2.5	2.63	2.9
	2.51	2.58	3.2
	2.54	2.4	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.19)	2.66 ↓ (3.07)	3.18 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcorcón
36.6%

Draw
34.6%

Eldense
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

30.3%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

30.6%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcorcón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alcorcón's form might have worsened.

Eldense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcorcón, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	75%	25%

Alcorcón - Eldense Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Eldense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ayesa G. (G) 15. Rodriguez S. 6. Perez I. 4. Rojas J. 3. Nieto S. 8. Martinez B. 18. Aguado T. 10. Ballesteros Y. (C) 14. Vacas L. 9. Carmona M. 7. Aparicio E.	1. Vila R. (G) 17. Clemente J. (C) 3. Smand F. 2. Serradell A. G. 21. Ruiz D. 18. Macho G. 8. Bustillo M. 12. Molina M. 10. Fidel 9. Dioni 7. Quintana Nacho
Substitutes
11. Kopotun V. 17. Lanchi 21. Llorente R. 13. Marti O. (G) 23. Navarro D. 24. Perez L. 19. Pola J. 5. Rai	11. Bellari H. 15. Billups B. 6. Calvo B. 5. Gaixas A. 19. Ibarrondo A. 26. Jimenez C. 22. Nunez R. 16. Quintanilla R. 13. Valencia P. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Vacas L. ⚽,
27', Smand F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vacas L. ↓, Navarro D. ↑,
49', 🟨,
50', 1 - 1, Fidel ⚽,
62', Ruiz D. ↓, Bellari H. ↑,
62', Bustillo M. ↓, Quintanilla R. ↑,
63', Macho G. ↓, Ibarrondo A. ↑,
65', Aparicio E. ↓, Llorente R. ↑,
65', Martinez B. ↓, Kopotun V. ↑,
71', 🟨,
78', Quintana Nacho 🟨,
82', Dioni ↓, Nunez R. ↑,
82', Fidel ↓, Calvo B. ↑,
87', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 9).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Alcorcón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alcorcón won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Alcorcón won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alcorcón - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.42%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Eldense - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.32%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.25	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
23.11.25	Alcorcón - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Alcorcón - Atlético Madrid B	0:1 ✺
09.11.25	Marbella - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
31.10.25	Alcorcón - Sevilla B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LWLWT
- CD Eldense
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.12.25	Eldense - Almería	2:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.11.25	Eldense - Antequera	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Cartagena - Eldense	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Eldense - Hércules	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Atlético Madrid B - Eldense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.04.24	Alcorcón - Eldense	0:0
11.09.23	Eldense - Alcorcón	2:2

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