Match Info

Copa del Rey - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat (Elda)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Eldense		Almería

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.35	2.02
	3.54	3.45	2.04
	3.66	3.31	2.00	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2	Watch
	3.76	3.52	2.06	Watch
	3.33	3.33	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.58 ↓ (4.28)	3.39 ↓ (3.51)	2 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Eldense
26.1%

Draw
27.5%

Almería
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

26.3%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

25.8%

53.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Eldense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almería might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eldense than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almería could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Eldense - Almería Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Users Predictions: Almería will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Valencia P. (G) 15. Billups B. 2. Serradell A. G. 5. Gaixas A. (C) 21. Ruiz D. 18. Macho G. 6. Calvo B. 16. Quintanilla R. 19. Ibarrondo A. 22. Nunez R. 11. Bellari H.	31. Iribarne B. (G) 16. Luna M. 32. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 15. Hernandez A. 20. Centelles A. 2. Puigmal A. 5. Clua S. 14. Baba I. 6. Horta A. 36. Perovic M. 19. Soko P.
Substitutes
8. Bustillo M. 17. Clemente J. 9. Dioni 4. Dumic D. 10. Fidel 20. Ibanez R. 26. Jimenez C. 12. Molina M. 7. Quintana Nacho 3. Smand F. 1. Vila R. (G)	11. Arribas S. 18. Bonini F. 22. Chirino D. 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. 8. Gui Guedes . Kounia H. 13. Martinez F. (G) 3. Munoz A. 24. Robertone L. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Barragan C.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Soko P. ⚽, Baba I. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Billups B. ↓, Quintana Nacho ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Bellari H. ⚽,
63', Soko P. ↓, Robertone L. ↑,
63', Horta A. ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
63', Perovic M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
65', 2 - 1, Quintana Nacho ⚽, Ibarrondo A. (A),
68', Calvo B. ↓, Bustillo M. ↑,
68', Ruiz D. ↓, Clemente J. ↑,
68', Nunez R. ↓, Ibanez R. ↑,
76', Quintanilla R. ↓, Molina M. ↑,
77', Baba I. ↓, Arribas S. ↑,
83', Puigmal A. ↓, Kounia H. ↑,
89', Bustillo M. 🟨,
90+3', Arribas S. 🟨,
90+4', Clemente J. 🟨,

Preview

Eldense has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Eldense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Almería is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Eldense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Eldense won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Eldense
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
29.11.25	Eldense - Antequera	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Cartagena - Eldense	0:0 ✺
16.11.25	Eldense - Hércules	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Atlético Madrid B - Eldense	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Eldense - Algeciras	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LTWTW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
29.11.25	Almería - Huesca	0:0 ✺
26.11.25	Ceuta - Almería	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Leganés - Almería	0:3 ✺
16.11.25	Almería - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Almería - Eibar	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
04.05.25	Almería - Eldense	5:0
08.09.24	Eldense - Almería	1:0

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