Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 37

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo (Alcorcón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Alcorcón		Marbella

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.1	7
	1.39	4.1	6.5
	1.4	4.25	7.1
	1.38	4.52	8.05
	1.38	4.7	7.69	Watch
	1.4	3.9	6.5
	1.36	4.25	7.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.43)	4.26 ↓ (4.36)	7.23 ↑ (6.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcorcón
65.9%

Draw
21.5%

Marbella
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

21.3%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.4%

20.5%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Marbella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marbella than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Alcorcón - Marbella Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ayesa G. (G) 23. Navarro D. 19. Pola J. 4. Rojas J. 15. Rodriguez S. 14. Vacas L. 18. Aguado T. 10. Ballesteros Y. (C) 7. Aparicio E. 11. Kopotun V. 22. Blanco R.	34. Barrios F. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 23. Escassi A. 22. Rodriguez J. 3. Martinez A. 20. Cambra J. 8. Eugeni 16. Ruiz A. 21. Llacer L. 17. Alexiel 24. Selma D.
Substitutes
35. Arcos D. 9. Carmona M. 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 8. Martinez B. 13. Marti O. (G) 3. Nieto S. 17. Ouhdadi O. 5. Rai 28. Santana dos Santos E. L. 16. Tounkara N.	5. Carbonell A. 4. Castellano A. 15. Gabri 1. Garcia M. (G) 10. Gil A. 19. Ohemeng E. 31. Orozco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Aparicio E. ⚽,
12', 2 - 0, Rodriguez J. (Own goal),
28', Pola J. 🟨,
30', Martinez A. 🟨,
33', Martinez A. 🟥,
34', Navarro D. ↓, Domingo Ciuraneta P. ↑,
45+3', 3 - 0, Aguado T. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
46', Aparicio E. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
46', Pola J. ↓, Arcos D. ↑,
46', Selma D. ↓, Ohemeng E. ↑,
59', 4 - 0, Martinez B. ⚽,
60', Ruiz A. ↓, Gil A. ↑,
60', Llacer L. ↓, Carbonell A. ↑,
60', Escassi A. ↓, Gabri ↑,
65', Blanco R. ↓, Ouhdadi O. ↑,
72', 5 - 0, Rodriguez S. ⚽, Ouhdadi O. (A),
73', 5 - 1, Alexiel ⚽,
77', Kopotun V. ↓, Santana dos Santos E. L. ↑,
79', Ballesteros Y. 🟨,
82', 5 - 2, Alexiel ⚽,
89', 6 - 2, Ouhdadi O. ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Alcorcón may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alcorcón is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alcorcón won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 2.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Alcorcón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	13:4	9	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
08.05.26	Cartagena - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
01.05.26	Alcorcón - CE Europa	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Alcorcón	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Alcorcón - Villarreal B	2:3 ✺
11.04.26	Tarazona - Alcorcón	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLWLL
- Marbella FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.05.26	Marbella - Juventud de Torremolinos	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Eldense - Marbella	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Marbella - Sabadell	0:1 ✺
19.04.26	Marbella - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	Atlético Madrid B - Marbella	5:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.11.25	Marbella - Alcorcón	1:2
17.05.25	Alcorcón - Marbella	3:1
12.01.25	Marbella - Alcorcón	3:3

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