Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Algeciras		Alcorcón

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.9	3
	2.35	2.98	3
	2.45	2.94	3.09
	2.17	3.21	3.28	Watch
	2.39	3.02	3.12
	2.05	3.05	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.17)	3.02 ↓ (3.21)	3.13 ↓ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
40.2%

Draw
30.5%

Alcorcón
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

28.9%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

29.2%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Algeciras - Alcorcón Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moreno I. (G) 3. Marquez J. 6. Mayorga A. 4. Coch A. 11. Sanchez T. 21. Garcia J. 20. Alamo J. 7. Rastrojo J. 8. Turrillo I. (C) 19. Obeng I. 9. Gonzaga M.	1. Ayesa G. (G) 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 6. Perez I. 19. Pola J. 3. Nieto S. 8. Martinez B. 5. Rai (C) 22. Blanco R. 18. Aguado T. 14. Vacas L. 9. Carmona M.
Substitutes
22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 2. Arauz C. 10. Garrido D. 16. Gomez A. 14. Nader A. 30. Perez M. (G) 23. Riley J. 15. Ruiz V. 26. Villalba A.	7. Aparicio E. 10. Ballesteros Y. 17. Lanchi 21. Llorente R. 13. Marti O. (G) 23. Navarro D. 24. Perez L. 15. Rodriguez S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', Gonzaga M. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Obeng I. ⚽,
37', Obeng I. 🟨,
38', Sanchez T. 🟨,
38', Blanco R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Aguado T. ↓, Ballesteros Y. ↑,
68', Mayorga A. 🟥,
71', Garcia J. ↓, Ruiz V. ↑,
76', Domingo Ciuraneta P. ↓, Lanchi ↑,
77', Aparicio E. 🟨,
83', Turrillo I. 🟨,
83', Carmona M. 🟥,
88', 🟨,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Algeciras is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alcorcón's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Algeciras will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Algeciras won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Algeciras won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Last Results with these Odds

Algeciras - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.78%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.10.25	Cartagena - Algeciras	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Algeciras - CE Europa	2:3 ✺
04.10.25	Betis B - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Algeciras - Real Murcia	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Algeciras - Sabadell	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTWL
- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.10.25	Alcorcón - Sabadell	0:3 ✺
12.10.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
04.10.25	Alcorcón - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Hércules - Alcorcón	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Alcorcón - Juventud de Torremolinos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.04.25	Algeciras - Alcorcón	2:0
24.11.24	Alcorcón - Algeciras	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.04.23	Algeciras - Alcorcón	0:0
19.11.22	Alcorcón - Algeciras	2:0

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