Match Info

PERU: LIGA 2 - PROMOTION - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 15 October 2023, Sunday


	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco		Universidad San Martín

	1	X	2
	1.24	5.25	8.75
	1.22	5.5	9.5	Watch
	1.2	5.83	10.34
	1.2	5.5	11
	1.2	5.9	10.5	Watch
	1.24	5.4	9.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.55)	5.56 ↑ (3.4)	9.92 ↑ (6.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
74.5%

Draw
16.3%

Universidad San Martín
9.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

26.7%

14.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

25.8%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Universidad de Huánuco's performance.

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universidad San Martín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Universidad de Huánuco that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Universidad San Martín could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 3-2.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alianza Universidad won 2.

Alianza Universidad is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Universidad San Martín is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alianza Universidad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alianza Universidad is certain favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Alianza Universidad won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Universidad won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 2
10.10.23	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:3 ✺
27.09.23	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Unión Huaral	1:0 ✺
21.09.23	Comerciantes Belén - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:1 ✺
13.09.23	Juan Aurich - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:0 ✺
07.09.23	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Los Chankas	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWLTW
- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 2
10.10.23	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:3 ✺
06.10.23	Deportivo Llacuabamba - Universidad San Martín	1:1 penalties ✺
02.10.23	Universidad San Martín - Deportivo Llacuabamba	1:0 ✺
26.09.23	Comerciantes Unidos - Universidad San Martín	1:0 ✺
18.09.23	Universidad San Martín - Deportivo Coopsol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
10.10.23	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:3
18.07.23	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universidad San Martín	2:2
23.04.23	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:2
Peruvian Liga 1
23.08.21	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universidad San Martín	1:1
26.10.20	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universidad San Martín	0:1
16.02.20	Universidad San Martín - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:2
22.09.19	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Universidad San Martín	1:1

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