Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belarus	02:00	Sport TV
Colombia	18:00	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South America	—	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	19:00	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, Fubo Latino 2


	Alianza Valledupar		Rionegro Águilas

	1	X	2
	2.80	3.00	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.10	2.60
	2.63	3.20	2.75	Watch
	2.86	3.15	2.73
	2.41	3.15	3.02	Watch
	2.40	3.20	3.00
	2.88	3.09	2.70	Watch
	2.65	3.10	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.6)	3.12 ↓ (3.15)	2.76 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
35.6%

Draw
30.2%

Rionegro Águilas
34.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.7%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Rionegro Águilas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Alianza will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Beltran E. (G) 23. Alba I. 22. Figueroa J. (C) 32. Viveros J. 33. Lasso J. 55. Fernandez W. 7. Castillo J. 14. Villegas C. 8. Munoz J. 10. Quinones D. 18. Vergara C.	1. Soto J. (G) 26. Lozano D. 4. Mosquera A. 3. Ontaneda J. 32. Mena J. 19. Lozano F. (C) 6. Rojas I. 15. Suarez Chalare F. A. 8. Ricaurte A. 7. Arizalas E. 21. Marquez R.
Substitutes
5. Franco P. 27. Londono Y. 77. Martinez M. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 3. Moreno K. 21. Nieto S. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 13. Simancas A. (G) 11. Viafara B.	24. Avalo Trejos J. E. 29. Blandon T. 12. Hurtado J. (G) 30. Lara Vasquez N. 10. Noguera J. 16. Ramirez M. 25. Roa J. 28. Rodriguez S. 9. Vasquez A.
Coaches
Torres F.	Robatto F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', Vergara C. 🟨,
21', 0 - 1, Rojas I. ⚽, Ricaurte A. (A),
33', Suarez Chalare F. A. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
36', Ontaneda J. 🟨,
45+3', 0 - 2, Vasquez A. ⚽, Marquez R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Quinones D. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
58', Villegas C. ↓, Londono Y. ↑,
58', Arizalas E. ↓, Ramirez M. ↑,
62', Castillo J. 🟨,
63', Ricaurte A. 🟨,
72', Meza Mercado E. W. 🟨,
75', Londono Y. 🟨,
77', Marquez R. ↓, Avalo Trejos J. E. ↑,
78', Ricaurte A. ↓, Roa J. ↑,
78', Rojas I. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
79', Lozano F. 🟨,
80', Martinez M. 🟨,
81', Castillo J. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
81', Munoz J. ↓, Meza Mercado E. W. ↑,
82', Viveros J. 🟨,
84', Viveros J. ↓, Franco P. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Martinez M. ⚽, Perez Balcazar J. E. (A),
90+2', Torres F. 🟨,
90+4', Perez Balcazar J. E. 🟨,
90+4', Martinez M. 🟨,
90+9', 2 - 2, Figueroa J. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.

In recent outings, Alianza has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rionegro Águilas is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alianza has recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:23 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 23:10 goals (averaging 2.1:0.9 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Aguilas	16	5	7	4	21:20	1	22
12	Alianza	15	5	3	7	16:26	-10	18

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Alianza: 0.55%

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Valledupar - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.09%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
02.10.26	Deportivo Cali - Alianza Valledupar	3:1 ✺
27.09.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	1:4 ✺
15.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWLWW
- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
03.10.26	Rionegro Águilas - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Deportivo Cali - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	América de Cali - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0
18.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0
Colombian Copa
04.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	4:0
Colombian Primera A
26.04.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	0:0
06.11.24	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	3:0
17.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	4:0
15.10.23	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	3:0

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