The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Valledupar 33.2%
Draw 29.9%
Independiente Santa Fe 36.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
37%
31%
32%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.9%
32.6%
30.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
Independiente Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+5.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Valledupar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-6.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
60%
40%
Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe Predictions
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Santa Fe will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
40. Beltran E. (G) 23. Alba I. 22. Figueroa J. 32. Viveros J. 33. Lasso J. 55. Fernandez W. 7. Castillo J. 17. Pardo F. (C) 10. Quinones D. 8. Munoz J. 18. Vergara C.
1. Mosquera A. (G) 13. Palacios H. 15. Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 18. Olivera E. 24. Angulo J. 16. Torres D. (C) 6. Toscano Bassa K. D. 14. Palacios L. 9. Fagundez F. 10. Zapata A. 19. Bustos N.
Substitutes
15. Esparragoza C. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 3. Moreno K. 28. Osorio J. 88. Palacios L. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 26. Rada H. 14. Villegas C. 1. Wallens J. (G)
12. Asprilla W. (G) 43. Caicedo J. 17. Lovera M. 32. Mafla C. 3. Moreno V. 77. Obrian J. 39. Portocarrero C. 11. Rodallega H. 7. Torres J.
Coaches
Torres F.
Repetto P.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 2)
22', Pardo F. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Zapata A. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Bustos N. ⚽, Angulo J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Fernandez W. ↓, Meza Mercado E. W. ↑,
46', Olivera E. ↓, Moreno V. ↑,
46', Torres D. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
47', 1 - 2, Vergara C. ⚽,
49', Scarpeta Silgado I. R. 🟨,
52', Meza Mercado E. W. 🟨,
52', Toscano Bassa K. D. 🟨,
52', Repetto P. 🟨,
55', Viveros J. 🟨,
63', Munoz J. ↓, Villegas C. ↑,
70', Fagundez F. ↓, Lovera M. ↑,
75', 1 - 3, Bustos N. (Penalty Awarded),
79', Zapata A. ↓, Obrian J. ↑,
79', Alba I. ↓, Osorio J. ↑,
79', Perez Balcazar J. E. ↓, Rada H. ↑,
84', Palacios L. ↓, Rodallega H. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 4, Rodallega H. ⚽,
Preview
A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 15th and 7th in the Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 1.
Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.
Alianza may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, Santa Fe has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alianza has recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:27 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 17:9 goals (averaging 1.9:1 per game).
Standings
Clausura
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
7
Santa Fe
13
6
4
3
19:13
6
22
14
Alianza
14
4
3
7
15:26
-11
15
Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now
Santa Fe: 12.33% Alianza: 1%
Last Results with these Odds
Independiente Santa Fe - the odds 2.95 are the expected chance of winning is 32.01%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.
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Beltran E. (G) 
Fernandez W. 
Olivera E. 
