Match Info

Date: 9 October 2026, Friday


	Alianza Valledupar		Rionegro Águilas

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.00	2.90	Watch
	2.35	3.20	2.80
	2.60	3.15	2.75	Watch
	2.51	3.30	3.00
	2.48	3.13	2.87	Watch
	2.45	3.10	2.80
	2.45	3.10	2.81
	2.41	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.6)	3.14 ↓ (3.15)	2.85 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
37.6%

Draw
29.7%

Rionegro Águilas
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.1%

29.8%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

29.6%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Rionegro Águilas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 15th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.

In recent outings, Alianza has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Rionegro Águilas is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alianza has recorded 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:23 (averaging 1.3:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 23:10 goals (averaging 2.1:0.9 per game).

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Alianza: 0.63%

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Aguilas	11	3	5	3	14:15	-1	14
15	Alianza	12	3	2	7	12:24	-12	11

Last Results with these Odds

Alianza Valledupar - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 36.09%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
02.10.26	Deportivo Cali - Alianza Valledupar	3:1 ✺
27.09.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe	1:4 ✺
15.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Alianza Valledupar	1:2 ✺
12.09.26	Alianza Valledupar - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWLWW
- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
03.10.26	Rionegro Águilas - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:0 ✺
27.09.26	Deportivo Cali - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
23.09.26	América de Cali - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pereira	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Nacional - Rionegro Águilas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
27.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0
18.10.25	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0
Colombian Copa
04.06.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	4:0
Colombian Primera A
26.04.25	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	0:0
06.11.24	Alianza Valledupar - Rionegro Águilas	3:0
17.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	4:0
15.10.23	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	3:0

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