Match Info

ESTONIA: ESILIIGA - ROUND 34

Date: 2 November 2023, Thursday


	Alliance		Elva

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.8	4.33	1.6
	4.2	4.5	1.57	Watch
	3.99	4.82	1.63
	4.15	4.65	1.55
	4.2	4.5	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.07 ↑ (2.63)	4.56 ↑ (4.07)	1.58 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alliance
22.4%

Draw
20%

Elva
57.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

22.6%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

21.7%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alliance has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alliance's form might have worsened.

Elva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elva's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alliance than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alliance, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elva than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	7.1%	92.9%

Alliance - Elva Predictions

Users Predictions: Elva will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
69. Kanev N. (G) 2. Wadjonre J. 5. Mitsuk G. (C) 30. Saar R. 17. Paulo Vitor 25. Kardava R. 99. Velikanov V. 8. Butenko A. 9. Pavlov K. 11. Ivanov I. 10. Orlov M.	12. Janes M. M. (G) 36. Ilves E. 6. Kutt V. 10. Reilson J. (C) 27. Ivaste A. 23. Koivik R. 2. Harm H. 8. Tinn K. 25. Karasjov N. 17. Kuresoo J. 41. Paju A.
Substitutes
15. Jakovlev M. 14. Koskor K. 12. Zotov E.	15. Jaagant R. 34. Kasak A. 26. Saal K. 16. Thomson M. 14. Vokksepp R.

Preview

Alliance is Relegated to

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alliance won 0.

Alliance is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Elva is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Elva will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Alliance won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 3-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Alliance won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ida-Virumaa FC Alliance
Estonian Esiliiga
29.10.23	Alliance - Tallinna JK Legion	3:4 ✺
22.10.23	Nõmme United - Alliance	3:0 ✺
08.10.23	Alliance - Viimsi JK	1:3 ✺
01.10.23	Paide U21 - Alliance	1:3 ✺
28.09.23	Alliance - FC Tallinn	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LLLWL
- FC Elva
Estonian Esiliiga
29.10.23	Elva - Tabasalu	3:0 ✺
21.10.23	Elva - Flora U21	1:4 ✺
08.10.23	FC Tallinn - Elva	1:2 ✺
02.10.23	Viimsi JK - Elva	4:0 ✺
28.09.23	Elva - Paide U21	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Esiliiga
02.07.23	Elva - Alliance	3:0
10.05.23	Alliance - Elva	1:2
06.05.23	Elva - Alliance	3:0
12.09.22	Alliance - Elva	1:3
20.08.22	Elva - Alliance	4:0
02.05.22	Elva - Alliance	4:1
13.03.22	Alliance - Elva	0:2

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