Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 17

Date: 17 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	PrimeTel
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	beIN Sports Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Canal+ Sport 5
Portugal	Eleven Sports 4
Serbia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Almería		Mallorca

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.35	3.1	3.2
	2.4	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.4	3.2	3.4
	2.4	3.15	3.4
	2.2	3.3	3.2
	2.34	3.28	3.2	Watch
	2.38	3.15	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.7)	3.19 ↓ (3.36)	3.29 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
40.8%

Draw
30.1%

Mallorca
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

28.2%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

29.2%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Almería's performance.

Mallorca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mallorca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Almería that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mallorca than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mallorca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.9%	47.7%	36.4%

Almería - Mallorca Predictions

Users Predictions: 44 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 7 - 15.9%). Mallorca will win (votes: 16 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 47.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32.9% – 62.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 21. Chumi 22. Montes C. 3. Gonzalez E. 15. Akieme S. 17. Pozo A. 5. Robertone L. (C) 6. Lopy D. 10. Embarba A. 12. Leo Baptistao 19. Arribas S.	1. Rajkovic P. (G) 15. Maffeo P. 21. Raillo A. (C) 2. Nastasic M. 11. Costa J. 5. Mascarell O. 12. Samu Costa 18. Sanchez A. 10. Darder S. 14. Rodriguez D. 17. Larin C.
Substitutes
4. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 28. Fettal R. 2. Kaiky 14. Lazaro 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 11. Melero G. 24. Mendes H. 8. Puigmal A. 7. Ramazani L. 34. Sanca M.	6. Copete J. 32. Fernandez Cozar M. 20. Gonzalez G. 13. Greif D. (G) 19. Llabres J. 27. Lopez D. 33. Luna D. 8. Morlanes M. 23. Ndiaye A. 25. Pichu Cuellar (G) 9. Prats A. 4. Van Der Heyden S.
Coaches
Garitano G.	Aguirre J.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 15).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 1.

Almería has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Mallorca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Almería could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Almería: Kone I. (Ankle Injury) Milovanovic M. (Knee Injury) Pubill M. (Injury) Suarez L. (Broken calfbone) Svidersky M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Mallorca: Lato T. (Muscle Injury) Muriqi V. (Calf Injury) Valjent M. (Knee Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Almería won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
10.12.23	Atlético Madrid - Almería	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Barbastro - Almería	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.12.23	Almería - Betis	0:0 ✺
25.11.23	Getafe - Almería	2:1 ✺
11.11.23	Almería - Real Sociedad	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTLL
- RCD Mallorca
Spanish LaLiga
09.12.23	Mallorca - Sevilla	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Egüés - Mallorca	0:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
03.12.23	Mallorca - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
29.11.23	Mallorca - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
25.11.23	Atlético Madrid - Mallorca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
20.05.23	Almería - Mallorca	3:0
17.09.22	Mallorca - Almería	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
21.02.21	Mallorca - Almería	2:0
03.12.20	Almería - Mallorca	0:1
19.05.19	Mallorca - Almería	1:0
06.01.19	Almería - Mallorca	2:0
20.05.17	Mallorca - Almería	1:0

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