Match Info

Date: 11 April 2022, Monday


	Almería		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.75	6	Watch
	1.47	4.1	5.5
	1.48	4.2	6.4	Watch
	1.47	4.3	6
	1.5	4.56	6.94
	1.7	3.4	5.25	Watch
	1.47	4.65	6.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.7)	4.28 ↑ (3.4)	6.08 ↑ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
62.4%

Draw
22.1%

Ponferradina
15.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.4%

27.1%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

26.5%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Almería's performance.

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Almería that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	5.4%	7.1%

Almería - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: Almería will win (49 of 56 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 78.84% – 96.16%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs) and 8).

Almería has the most likely position - 1 (32.49%), has project points - 77, has currently - 63, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (36%), has a good chance of promoted (72%), has a chance of win league (32%).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 8 (19.49%), has project points - 60, has currently - 51, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 32, importance 49, match rating 40. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 0.

Recent matches Almería is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ponferradina is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Almería is certain favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Almería won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
03.04.22	Huesca - Almería	1:1 ✺
27.03.22	Almería - Girona	0:1 ✺
21.03.22	Tenerife - Almería	0:1 ✺
12.03.22	Almería - Lugo	3:3 ✺
04.03.22	Zaragoza - Almería	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWTL
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
03.04.22	Ponferradina - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
27.03.22	Mirandés - Ponferradina	3:1 ✺
20.03.22	Ponferradina - Eibar	2:2 ✺
12.03.22	Málaga - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
06.03.22	Ponferradina - Ibiza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
12.09.21	Ponferradina - Almería	1:0
21.03.21	Ponferradina - Almería	2:1
03.01.21	Almería - Ponferradina	3:1
17.07.20	Ponferradina - Almería	2:1
22.12.19	Almería - Ponferradina	2:3
17.04.16	Ponferradina - Almería	1:3
15.11.15	Almería - Ponferradina	1:1

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