Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 24

Date: 21 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Referee: Alvendiz L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1


	Ponferradina		Eibar

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	2.2	Watch
	3.3	2.95	2.15
	3.55	3.05	2.2
	3.35	3.1	2.17
	3.64	3.16	2.26
	3.55	3.06	2.21	Watch
	3.4	3.15	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.46 ↓ (3.88)	3.1 ↑ (3)	2.2 ↑ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
27.1%

Draw
30.3%

Eibar
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

31.4%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

31.3%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Eibar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	22.7%	63.6%

Ponferradina - Eibar Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Eibar will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (13.33%), has project points - 47, has currently - 25, has a chance of relegated (43%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Eibar has the most likely position - 1 (23.47%), has project points - 71, has currently - 43, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (42%), has a good chance of promoted (51%), has a chance of win league (23%).

This event has quality 32, importance 58, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 2.

Recent matches Ponferradina is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Eibar is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Eibar could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Eibar will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
14.01.23	Tenerife - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
06.01.23	Ponferradina - Villarreal B	2:1 ✺
17.12.22	Mirandés - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.12.22	Ponferradina - Atlético Madrid	2:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
11.12.22	Ponferradina - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWLLW
- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
15.01.23	Eibar - Málaga	2:1 ✺
08.01.23	Eibar - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
21.12.22	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas - Eibar	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
18.12.22	Levante - Eibar	0:0 ✺
11.12.22	Eibar - Real Oviedo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
28.08.22	Eibar - Ponferradina	1:0
20.03.22	Ponferradina - Eibar	2:2
22.08.21	Eibar - Ponferradina	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
16.12.15	Eibar - Ponferradina	4:0
03.12.15	Ponferradina - Eibar	3:0
Spanish LaLiga2
10.05.14	Eibar - Ponferradina	0:0
08.12.13	Ponferradina - Eibar	2:1

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