The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Ponferradina 24.7%
Draw 27.6%
Las Palmas 47.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.7%
30.5%
36.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.7%
30.5%
36.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ponferradina's form might have worsened.
Las Palmas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Las Palmas's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Palmas than the current prediction. (-10.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Las Palmas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
12%
12%
76%
Ponferradina - Las Palmas Predictions
Users Predictions:
25 users predict this event. Ponferradina will win (votes: 3 - 12%). Las Palmas will win (votes: 19 - 76%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%). Confidence interval (95%) for Las Palmas: 59.3% – 92.7%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Preview
During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 21 (7.28%), has project points - 51, has currently - 12, has a chance of relegated (28%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (9%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Las Palmas has the most likely position - 1 (18.07%), has project points - 70, has currently - 20, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (35%), has a chance of promoted (39%), has a chance of win league (18%).
This event has quality34, importance43, match rating39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 0.
Recent matches Ponferradina is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Las Palmas is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Las Palmas will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 8-22.
Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-7.
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