Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Almería		Lugo

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	8	Watch
	1.36	4.33	7.75
	1.4	4.4	8	Watch
	1.38	4.5	7.8
	1.41	4.79	8.91
	1.47	3.9	7.5	Watch
	1.4	4.55	8.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.48)	4.46 ↑ (4.15)	8.08 ↑ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
67.2%

Draw
21.1%

Lugo
11.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

22.9%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.2%

19.4%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-1%)

Almería - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga and 13).

Almería has the most likely position - 2 (31.71%), has project points - 78, has currently - 58, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (39%), has a good chance of promoted (71%), has a chance of win league (29%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 15 (11.44%), has project points - 55, has currently - 40, has a very small chance of relegated (2%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 35, importance 43, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 0.

Almería is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Lugo is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Almería could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Almería is absolute favorite.

In this match Almería is certain favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Almería won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 23-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
04.03.22	Zaragoza - Almería	2:0 ✺
25.02.22	Almería - Fuenlabrada	3:1 ✺
20.02.22	Almería - Mirandés	2:1 ✺
12.02.22	Málaga - Almería	0:1 ✺
04.02.22	Almería - Ibiza	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWWW
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
06.03.22	Lugo - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
26.02.22	Las Palmas - Lugo	2:2 ✺
20.02.22	Huesca - Lugo	1:0 ✺
13.02.22	Lugo - Amorebieta	1:1 ✺
05.02.22	Real Sociedad B - Lugo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
19.01.22	Lugo - Almería	2:1
27.02.21	Almería - Lugo	4:1
27.09.20	Lugo - Almería	0:2
04.01.20	Lugo - Almería	0:4
12.10.19	Almería - Lugo	0:0
05.05.19	Lugo - Almería	4:2
16.12.18	Almería - Lugo	1:1

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