Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Final

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga)

Referee: Lax S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Events, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	DSports 4
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DSports 4
France	beIN Connect
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hungary	Spiler2 TV
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Philippines	beIN Sports 3
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 2, CANAL+ Sport 4
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Events, SuperSport Variety 4
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Movistar Plus+, Orange Futbol 2
Thailand	beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Sport
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Málaga		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.10
	2.18	3.15	3.3	Watch
	2.29	3.25	3.51
	2.27	3.21	3.33	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.1
	2.26	3.25	3.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.3)	3.19 ↓ (3.2)	3.31 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
42.3%

Draw
29.4%

Almería
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

29.3%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.7%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Málaga - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Almería will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 59.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Málaga (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 16. Murillo D. 20. Montero J. 31. Rafita 10. Larrubia D. 12. Dotor C. 37. Rodriguez R. 35. Ochoa A. 21. Nino A. 22. Lorenzo D.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 2. Puigmal A. 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. (C) 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
5. Brasanac D. 9. Chupe 6. Enriquez R. 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 23. Merino I. 11. Munoz J. 36. Recio A. 18. Sanchez D.	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Funes J.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Rafita 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ochoa A. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
56', Puigmal A. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
63', Nino A. ↓, Chupe ↑,
63', Rodriguez R. ↓, Merino I. ↑,
68', de la Fuente M. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
78', Lorenzo D. ↓, Enriquez R. ↑,
83', Arribas S. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
90', Merino I. 🟨,
90', Larrubia D. ↓, Lobete J. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Málaga is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

Almería is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.

Málaga is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Almería's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Málaga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Málaga will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Málaga: Juanpe (Muscle Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Pastor A. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Málaga: Abaida H. (Muscle Injury) Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Galilea E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Embarba A. (Injury) Horta A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
10.06.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	1:1 ✺
07.06.26	Las Palmas - Málaga	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	Zaragoza - Málaga	0:2 ✺
24.05.26	Málaga - Racing Santander	1:1 ✺
16.05.26	Ceuta - Málaga	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 TWWTW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
09.06.26	Almería - Castellón	3:2 ✺
06.06.26	Castellón - Almería	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Almería - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2
21.12.25	Málaga - Almería	2:1
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Almería - Málaga	1:2
Spanish LaLiga2
01.03.25	Almería - Málaga	2:2
08.12.24	Málaga - Almería	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Málaga - Almería	0:1
27.07.23	Almería - Málaga	0:1

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