Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA - ROUND 30

Date: 30 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Power Horse Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Fuertes P. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Argentina	DirecTV
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	beIN Sports Max
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Almería		Osasuna

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.87
	2.55	3.3	2.9	Watch
	2.61	3.25	2.99
	2.6	3.25	2.99
	2.5	3.25	2.8
	2.62	3.37	2.97	Watch
	2.59	3.35	2.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.68)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)	2.91 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
37.5%

Draw
29.4%

Osasuna
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

29.4%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.9%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.7%	65.2%	13%

Almería - Osasuna Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Almería will win (votes: 5 - 21.7%). Osasuna will win (votes: 3 - 13%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 65.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45.7% – 84.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Montes C. 16. Radovanovic A. 20. Centelles A. 8. Viera J. 3. Gonzalez E. 5. Robertone L. (C) 7. Ramazani L. 29. Milovanovic M. 19. Arribas S.	1. Herrera S. (C) 12. Areso J. 24. Catena A. 28. Herrando J. 3. Cruz J. 7. Moncayola J. 34. Munoz I. 16. Gomez M. 14. Garcia R. 17. Budimir A. 20. Arnaiz J. M.
Substitutes
4. Baba I. 21. Chumi 10. Embarba A. 24. Langa B. 12. Leo Baptistao 6. Lopy D. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 26. Pena M. 17. Pozo A. 38. Romero L.	13. Fernandez A. (G) 5. Garcia D. 23. Garcia R. 19. Ibanez P. 22. Mojica J. 10. Oroz A. 15. Pena R. 31. Valencia P. (G)
Coaches
Mel P.	Arrasate J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Arnaiz J. M. ⚽, Areso J. (A),
9', 0 - 2, Budimir A. ⚽, Moncayola J. (A),
22', Radovanovic A. ↓, Pena M. ↑,
37', Arnaiz J. M. 🟨,
44', Areso J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Arribas S. ↓, Embarba A. ↑,
46', Milovanovic M. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
51', Leo Baptistao 🟨,
51', Robertone L. 🟨,
56', Arnaiz J. M. ↓, Oroz A. ↑,
61', 0 - 3, Munoz I. ⚽, Catena A. (A),
63', Viera J. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
67', Garcia R. ↓, Pena R. ↑,
77', Robertone L. ↓, Lopy D. ↑,
77', Moncayola J. ↓, Ibanez P. ↑,
77', Cruz J. ↓, Mojica J. ↑,
77', Budimir A. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
79', Pena M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Almería: Melero G. (Suspended) Suarez L. (Foot Injury)

There will not play in Osasuna: Barja K. (Knee Injury) Garcia U. (Muscle Injury) Torro L. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Almería: Kone I. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Osasuna: Garcia D. (Muscle Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Almería won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 8-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
17.03.24	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1 ✺
11.03.24	Almería - Sevilla	2:2 ✺
01.03.24	Celta de Vigo - Almería	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Almería - Atlético Madrid	2:2 ✺
18.02.24	Granada - Almería	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 WTLTT
- Osasuna
Spanish LaLiga
16.03.24	Osasuna - Real Madrid	2:4 ✺
09.03.24	Girona - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
04.03.24	Osasuna - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
25.02.24	Las Palmas - Osasuna	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	Osasuna - Cádiz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
04.01.24	Osasuna - Almería	1:0
13.05.23	Osasuna - Almería	3:1
12.09.22	Almería - Osasuna	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
27.01.21	Almería - Osasuna	1:0 penalties
Spanish LaLiga2
26.01.19	Almería - Osasuna	0:1
08.09.18	Osasuna - Almería	3:1
10.02.18	Almería - Osasuna	0:1

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