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Osasuna - Real Madrid

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 25
  • Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday ๐Ÿ Finished
  • Location: Estadio El Sadar (Pamplona) ๐ŸŒค๏ธ ...
  • Referee: Quintero A. (Esp)
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    Osasuna Real Madrid
    Osasuna Real Madrid
    1 X 2
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    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.87 ↑
    (4.59)    		 4.01 ↓
    (4.14)    		 1.69
    (1.69)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Osasuna
    19.6%    		Draw
    23.8%    		Real Madrid
    56.6%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    20.7% 23% 56.3%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    20% 22.2% 57.8%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Osasuna has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)
  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna than the current prediction. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    4.8% 11.3% 83.9%

    Osasuna - Real Madrid Predictions

  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) ๐Ÿฅˆ Silver Tip.
    • AH -0.5 - Osasuna (4.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Users Predictions: Real Madrid will win (52 of 62 users predict this - 83.87%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 74.71% โ€“ 93.03%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) ๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold Tip.
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Osasuna (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Real (votes: 10 - 90.9%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainHerrera S. (G)
    19. FranceRosier V.
    24. SpainCatena A.
      5. SpainHerrando J.
    20. SpainGalan J.
      7. SpainMoncayola J.
      6. SpainTorro L.
    17. CroatiaBudimir A.
    10. SpainOroz A.
    21. SpainMunoz V.
    14. SpainGarcia R. (C)
    		  1. BelgiumCourtois T. (G)
      2. SpainCarvajal D. (C)
    17. SpainAsencio R.
      4. AustriaAlaba D.
    18. SpainCarreras A.
      8. UruguayValverde F.
    15. TurkeyGuler A.
    14. FranceTchouameni A.
      6. FranceCamavinga E.
    10. FranceMbappe K.
      7. BrazilVinicius Junior
    Substitutes
    41. SpainArguibide I.
    11. SpainBarja K.
    23. SpainBretones A.
      3. SpainCruz J.
    13. SpainFernandez A. (G)
      9. SpainGarcia R.
    16. SpainGomez M.
    18. SpainMoro R.
      8. SpainMunoz I.
    29. SpainOsambela A.
    31. GreeceStamatakis D. (G)
    		12. EnglandAlexander-Arnold T.
    19. SpainCeballos D.
    21. MoroccoDiaz B.
    20. SpainGarcia F.
    16. SpainGarcia G.
    13. UkraineLunin A. (G)
    30. ArgentinaMastantuono F.
    23. FranceMendy F.
    43. SpainMestre S. (G)
    45. SpainPitarch T.
    22. GermanyRudiger A.
    Coaches
         ItalyLisci A.
    		     SpainArbeloa A.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 0)
    • 32', Oroz A. 🟨,
    • 37', Courtois T. 🟨,
    • 38', 1 - 0, Budimir A. (Penalty Awarded),
    • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
    • 64', Camavinga E. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
    • 64', Carvajal D. ↓, Alexander-Arnold T. ↑,
    • 66', Moncayola J. 🟨,
    • 66', Garcia R. ↓, Bretones A. ↑,
    • 67', Budimir A. ↓, Garcia R. ↑,
    • 71', Oroz A. ↓, Munoz I. ↑,
    • 73', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Valverde F. (A),
    • 75', Valverde F. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
    • 82', Guler A. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
    • 83', Rosier V. ↓, Arguibide I. ↑,
    • 83', Moncayola J. ↓, Moro R. ↑,
    • 84', Alexander-Arnold T. 🟨,
    • 88', Vinicius Junior 🟨,
    • 90', 2 - 1, Garcia R. ⚽, Moro R. (A),
    • 90+3', Alaba D. 🟨,

    Preview

  • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 0.
  • Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
  • Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • In this match, Real is a strong favorite.
  • There will not play in Osasuna: Benito I. (Knee Injury) Boyomo F. (Injury)
  • There will not play in Real: Bellingham J. (Hamstring Injury) Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury) Huijsen D. (Muscle Injury) Rodrygo (Muscle Injury)
  • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Osasuna won 0 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 12:48. (average 0.6:2.4).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:21. (average 0.9:2.3).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    3Real Madrid1080225:101524
    12Osasuna1032510:20-1011

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Real Madrid: 23.56% Osasuna: 0.17%
    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Osasuna
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.02.26 Elche - Osasuna 0:0 ✺
    06.02.26 Celta de Vigo - Osasuna 1:2 ✺
    31.01.26 Osasuna - Villarreal 2:2 ✺
    24.01.26 Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna 1:3 ✺
    17.01.26 Osasuna - Real Oviedo 3:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.8
    TWTWW
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    17.02.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 0:1 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.02.26 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:1 ✺
    08.02.26 Valencia - Real Madrid 0:2 ✺
    01.02.26 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    28.01.26 Benfica - Real Madrid 4:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1
    WWWWL
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    19.08.25 Real Madrid - Osasuna 1:0
    15.02.25 Osasuna - Real Madrid 1:1
    09.11.24 Real Madrid - Osasuna 4:0
    16.03.24 Osasuna - Real Madrid 2:4
    07.10.23 Real Madrid - Osasuna 4:0
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    06.05.23 Real Madrid - Osasuna 2:1
    Spanish LaLiga
    18.02.23 Osasuna - Real Madrid 0:2
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Osasuna
    Spanish LaLiga
    02.11.26 Deportivo A Coruรฑa - Osasuna ✺
    Spanish Copa del Rey
    29.10.26 Atlรฉtico Calatayud - Osasuna ✺
    - Real Madrid
    UEFA Champions League
    04.11.26 AEK Athens - Real Madrid ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.11.26 Racing Santander - Real Madrid ✺

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