Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 7 June 2025, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Arcediano D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Almería		Real Oviedo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3	3.5
	2.18	3	3.45	Watch
	2.02	3.32	4.24
	2.3	3.06	3.46	Watch
	2	3.1	3.9
	2.32	3.11	3.28	Watch
	2.18	3	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.89)	3.09 ↓ (3.48)	3.59 ↓ (4.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
43.3%

Draw
30.5%

Real Oviedo
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.1%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

27.5%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almería's form might have worsened.

Real Oviedo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.3%	10.5%	13.2%

Almería - Real Oviedo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Oviedo (1.69) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Almería (1.89) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DC - Oviedo (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Oviedo (2.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Almería will win (28 of 35 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.75% – 93.25%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 14 - 58.3%). Oviedo (votes: 8 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Martinez F. (G) 17. Pozo A. 3. Gonzalez E. 21. Chumi 20. Centelles A. 6. Lopy D. 23. Clua Oya S. 12. Leo Baptistao 8. Melero G. (C) 11. Arribas S. 19. Marezi	13. Escandell A. (G) 5. Vidal N. 4. Costas D. 12. Calvo D. 3. Alhassane R. 6. Sibo K. 11. Colombatto S. 23. Hassan H. 20. Seoane J. 8. Cazorla S. (C) 9. Alemao
Substitutes
28. Fettal R. 38. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 27. Gui Guedes 31. Iribarne B. (G) 4. Kaiky 24. Langa B. 7. Lazaro 1. Maximiano L. (G) 10. Melamed N. 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 16. Radovanovic A.	24. Ahijado L. 1. Braat Q. (G) 27. Cardero A. 18. de la Fuente P. 17. de la Hoz C. 35. Falah O. 15. Luengo O. 30. Marco Esteban 7. Moyano F. 14. Paraschiv D. 21. Pomares C. 10. Portillo F.
Coaches
Rubi	Paunovic V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Vidal N. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Arribas S. ⚽,
25', Centelles A. 🟨,
45+1', Lopy D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Alemao 🟨,
60', Leo Baptistao ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
61', Marezi ↓, Lazaro ↑,
67', Alemao ↓, Paraschiv D. ↑,
67', Seoane J. ↓, de la Hoz C. ↑,
67', Hassan H. ↓, de la Fuente P. ↑,
74', Melero G. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
82', Cazorla S. ↓, Luengo O. ↑,
86', Pozo A. ↓, Kaiky ↑,
86', Arribas S. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
88', Colombatto S. ↓, Pomares C. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Vidal N. ⚽, Paraschiv D. (A),
90+3', Colombatto S. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 1.

Almería is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oviedo is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Almería will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Almería: Baba I. (Knee Injury) Robertone L. (Injury)

There will not play in Oviedo: Lemos A. (Thigh Injury) Vinas F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Oviedo: Chaira I. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Almería won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:19. (average 1.3:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 1.8:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
01.06.25	Almería - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
25.05.25	Mirandés - Almería	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Almería - Racing Santander	2:0 ✺
09.05.25	Cádiz - Almería	2:1 ✺
04.05.25	Almería - Eldense	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWLW
- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga2
01.06.25	Real Oviedo - Cádiz	2:1 ✺
25.05.25	Tenerife - Real Oviedo	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Real Oviedo - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Racing Santander - Real Oviedo	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Huesca - Real Oviedo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.02.25	Almería - Real Oviedo	1:1
13.10.24	Real Oviedo - Almería	3:2
29.01.22	Real Oviedo - Almería	2:0
20.08.21	Almería - Real Oviedo	2:1
01.05.21	Almería - Real Oviedo	2:2
30.11.20	Real Oviedo - Almería	1:2
16.01.20	Almería - Real Oviedo	2:0

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