Match Info

National League - Round 8

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Moss Lane (Altrincham)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Altrincham		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.4	2.8
	2.25	3.30	2.70
	2.28	3.35	2.8
	2.21	3.3	2.53
	2.35	3.4	2.85	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.85
	2.21	3.34	2.83
	2.3	3.4	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.75)	3.37 ↑ (3.35)	2.78 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Altrincham
40.2%

Draw
27%

Hartlepool United
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.4%

39.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.4%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Altrincham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Altrincham's performance.

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hartlepool United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Altrincham than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Altrincham that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hartlepool United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Altrincham - Hartlepool United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Firth A. (G) 14. Kosylo M. 21. Lopata-White R. 24. Barnes S. 2. Banks L. 15. Taylor S. 20. Reddin K. 22. Crawford T. (C) 8. Humbles L. 28. Hemmings K. 23. Kirk C.	32. Fisher N. (G) 4. Hunter J. (C) 6. McNally R. 27. Gibson L. 2. Benn J. 14. Sheron N. 8. Miley J. 7. Ilunga B. 42. Deeming C. 10. Harris W. 17. Nolan J.
Substitutes
32. Acquah M. (G) 10. Barlow A. 12. Breckin K. 5. Cooper J. 4. Hinchy J. 11. Knowles J. 17. Weaver L.	30. Bondo T. 9. Hugill J. 3. John C. 15. Penman C. 19. Popov C. 41. Smith A. (G) 21. Thornton C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', Hunter J. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Hemmings K. (Penalty Awarded),
41', Miley J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Miley J. ⚽, Ilunga B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Gibson L. ↓, John C. ↑,
58', Hemmings K. 🟨,
60', Deeming C. 🟨,
64', Reddin K. ↓, Knowles J. ↑,
72', Hunter J. 🟨,
78', Hemmings K. ↓, Weaver L. ↑,
78', Deeming C. ↓, Thornton C. ↑,
78', Nolan J. ↓, Popov C. ↑,
81', 2 - 1, Crawford T. ⚽, Humbles L. (A),
90+1', Barnes S. ↓, Cooper J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Altrincham won 1.

Altrincham has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hartlepool is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Altrincham won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Altrincham won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Hartlepool United - the odds 2.33 are the expected chance of winning is 39.33%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Altrincham
English National League
12.09.26	Woking - Altrincham	5:1 ✺
04.09.26	Altrincham - Eastleigh	2:1 ✺
English National League North
31.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Altrincham	1:2 ✺
English National League
28.08.26	Altrincham - Halifax Town	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Boston United - Altrincham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWWWL
- Hartlepool United
English National League North
11.09.26	Kidderminster Harriers - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
English National League
05.09.26	Hartlepool United - Woking	1:0 ✺
English National League North
01.09.26	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	1:0 ✺
English National League
28.08.26	Hartlepool United - Eastleigh	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League
17.01.26	Hartlepool United - Altrincham	1:0
19.08.25	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	0:2
18.02.25	Hartlepool United - Altrincham	1:2
23.10.24	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	1:1
20.02.24	Hartlepool United - Altrincham	3:2
19.09.23	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	2:2
09.03.21	Altrincham - Hartlepool United	1:1

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