Match Info

National League - Round 5

Date: 1 September 2026, Tuesday

Location: The Shay (Halifax)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Halifax Town		Hartlepool United

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.40	2.50
	2.45	3.25	2.45
	2.43	3.30	2.65
	2.57	3.64	2.66
	2.49	3.54	2.59	Watch
	2.50	3.60	2.55
	2.46	3.36	2.46
	2.50	3.45	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.28)	3.44 ↑ (3.3)	2.55 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Halifax Town
37.1%

Draw
26.8%

Hartlepool United
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

27.8%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

26.7%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Halifax Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Halifax Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hartlepool United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Halifax Town - Hartlepool United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Grant T. (G) 2. Bardell M. 8. Flint W. 5. Hobson S. 3. Conte R. 30. Johnson C. (C) 20. Trusty T. 10. Gilsenan Z. 4. Hugill W. 9. Carty C. 14. Morgan-Smith A.	1. Merrick M. (G) 2. Benn J. 6. McNally R. (C) 27. Gibson L. 3. John C. 17. Nolan J. 8. Miley J. 14. Sheron N. 7. Ilunga B. 9. Hugill J. 10. Harris W.
Substitutes
27. Allen C. 7. Bray O. 23. Crowe D. 16. Hill D. 1. Johnson S. (G) 22. Kawa D. 17. Tollitt B.	30. Bondo T. 32. Fisher N. (G) 4. Hunter J. 15. Penman C. 24. Penprase J. 19. Popov C. 21. Thornton C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Johnson C. 🟨,
38', Miley J. 🟨,
39', Trusty T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', John C. ↓, Hunter J. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Hugill W. ⚽, Gilsenan Z. (A),
60', Hugill J. ↓, Bondo T. ↑,
70', Gibson L. ↓, Thornton C. ↑,
71', Morgan-Smith A. ↓, Kawa D. ↑,
80', Bondo T. 🟨,
87', Gilsenan Z. ↓, Crowe D. ↑,
90', Carty C. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,
90+3', McNally R. 🟨,
90+6', Hugill W. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Halifax won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Hartlepool may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Halifax won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Halifax won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.5:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Halifax Town - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.28%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Halifax Town
English National League
28.08.26	Altrincham - Halifax Town	2:1 ✺
22.08.26	Halifax Town - Tamworth	4:1 ✺
English National League Cup
18.08.26	Halifax Town - Derby County U21	6:2 ✺
English National League
15.08.26	Halifax Town - Boreham Wood	1:3 ✺
08.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Halifax Town	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWLL
- Hartlepool United
English National League
28.08.26	Hartlepool United - Eastleigh	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Sutton United - Hartlepool United	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Aldershot Town - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
English National League Cup
11.08.26	Hartlepool United - Middlesbrough U21	0:10 ✺
English National League
08.08.26	Hartlepool United - Barrow	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
07.03.26	Hartlepool United - Halifax Town	0:1
08.11.25	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	0:1
29.03.25	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	0:1
07.09.24	Hartlepool United - Halifax Town	0:0
29.03.24	Hartlepool United - Halifax Town	1:0
24.10.23	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	2:1
02.03.21	Halifax Town - Hartlepool United	1:1

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