Match Info

ENGLAND: Southern League Premier Central - Round 17

Date: 23 November 2024, Saturday


	Alvechurch		Bedford Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.8
	2.11	3.45	3
	2.06	3.85	2.92
	2.12	3.82	3.02
	2.11	3.4	3.03
	2.11	3.45	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.4)	3.56 ↑ (3.35)	2.96 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvechurch
43.5%

Draw
25.7%

Bedford Town
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

26.9%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

25.7%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvechurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alvechurch's performance.

Bedford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvechurch that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bedford Town than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bedford Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alvechurch - Bedford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Crowther A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 7).

Recent matches Alvechurch is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Bedford is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Bedford could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Alvechurch have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Alvechurch won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:0 (average 2.7:0).

Including matches at home between the teams Alvechurch won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alvechurch FC
English FA Trophy
16.11.24	Alvechurch - Chasetown	1:0 penalties ✺
English Southern League Central Division
12.11.24	Leiston - Alvechurch	2:1 ✺
09.11.24	Barwell - Alvechurch	5:3 ✺
02.11.24	Sudbury Town - Alvechurch	1:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
26.10.24	Stourbridge - Alvechurch	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLLLW
- Bedford Town
English Southern League Central Division
16.11.24	Kettering Town - Bedford Town	2:2 ✺
09.11.24	Bedford Town - St Ives Town	0:3 ✺
02.11.24	Bromsgrove Sporting - Bedford Town	0:3 ✺
19.10.24	Bedford Town - Barwell	1:3 ✺
15.10.24	Banbury United - Bedford Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
25.03.23	Alvechurch - Bedford Town	2:0
25.10.22	Bedford Town - Alvechurch	0:3
English FA Trophy
08.10.22	Bedford Town - Alvechurch	0:3

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