Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal 2 - Round 8

Date: 12 October 2024, Saturday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV2, Sport TV+


	Alverca		Penafiel

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.6
	2.5	3.1	2.5
	2.65	3.25	2.6
	2.71	3.43	2.65
	2.64	3.28	2.61	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.45
	2.66	3.26	2.58	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.55)	3.25 ↓ (3.26)	2.57 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
35.4%

Draw
28.6%

Penafiel
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

28.9%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

30.3%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Penafiel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	18.2%	63.6%

Alverca - Penafiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Penafiel will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Penafiel: 35.2% – 92%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 3. Oliveira A. 5. Varela F. 13. Paulo Eduardo 16. Pires M. 40. Ageu E. 88. Martins D. 25. Dias R. (C) 11. Luiz Miguel 9. Carter A. 10. Andrezinho	31. Balde M. (G) 75. Robinho 44. Pereira R. 4. Miguel J. (C) 14. Pereira B. 8. Reko 21. Batista D. 30. Silva A. 20. Rodrigues T. 19. Chico Teixeira 17. Gabriel Barbosa
Substitutes
8. Bessa E. 7. Brenner 18. Eduardo W. 4. Iago Mendonca 89. Lima J. 35. Pedro Bicalho 23. Silva P. (G) 36. Thauan Lara 6. Velazquez S.	26. Brito D. 88. Ewerton 3. Fernandes G. 11. Leal J. 1. Oliveira Miguel (G) 99. Skuka X. 9. Suker H. 7. Vieira P. 34. Ze Leite
Coaches
Costa V.	Cristovao H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽, Silva A. (A),
27', Luiz Miguel 🟨,
28', Rodrigues T. 🟨,
29', Pereira R. 🟨,
30', 1 - 1, Carter A. ⚽, Varela F. (A),
45', Chico Teixeira ↓, Ze Leite ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Batista D. ↓, Ewerton ↑,
46', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Suker H. ↑,
46', Luiz Miguel ↓, Thauan Lara ↑,
46', Dias R. ↓, Pedro Bicalho ↑,
53', Ze Leite 🟨,
59', Martins D. 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Ze Leite ⚽, Pereira B. (A),
65', Silva A. ↓, Fernandes G. ↑,
66', Pereira B. 🟨,
72', Paulo Eduardo ↓, Brenner ↑,
81', Andrezinho ↓, Bessa E. ↑,
81', Martins D. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
88', Pereira B. ↓, Brito D. ↑,
90+8', Suker H. 🟨,
90+9', Robinho 🟨,
90+14', 2 - 2, Carter A. (Pen),

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Recent matches Alverca is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Penafiel is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 2
06.10.24	Mafra - Alverca	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Alverca - Leixões	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Coimbrões - Alverca	2:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
15.09.24	Marítimo - Alverca	1:2 ✺
30.08.24	Alverca - Académico de Viseu	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TTWWL
- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
06.10.24	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Portimonense - Penafiel	0:2 ✺
15.09.24	Penafiel - Porto B	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Paços de Ferreira - Penafiel	1:3 ✺
25.08.24	Penafiel - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WWTWT

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