Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 11

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Alverca		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.75	4.5
	1.7	3.75	5
	1.66	3.82	5.26
	1.66	3.61	4.98
	1.6	3.65	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.58)	3.72 ↑ (3.47)	4.89 ↓ (6.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
56.1%

Draw
24.9%

Varzim
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

26.6%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

25.8%

14.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
98. Joao Bravim (G) 17. Costa J. 25. Dias R. 6. Luiz Miguel 88. Martins D. 4. Oliveira A. 16. Pires M. 19. Silva R. 33. Venaque 90. Vitor Bruno 5. Ze Oliveira (C)	1. Pereira T. (G) 3. Bonilla J. 14. Joaozinho 45. Rafael Tavares 9. Sangare M. 19. Santos Teixeira L. 23. Sinisterra J. 89. Souza N. 6. Ufala S. 29. Vasco Rocha (C) 4. Xandao
Substitutes
95. Da Silva J. L. 30. Dias J. (G) 44. Gomes C. 28. Hachadi K. 21. Harramiz S. 15. Lucas J. 8. Pinto G. 14. Varela J. 11. Vitinho	49. Areias R. 8. Braga V. 41. Estefano L. (G) 22. Guga 15. Martins D. 5. Milhazes A. 10. Pereira N. 77. Ribeiro R. M. 17. Vieira J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', Souza N. 🟨,
41', 1 - 0, Costa J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Xandao ↓, Guga ↑,
46', Souza N. ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
65', Luiz Miguel 🟨,
68', Oliveira A. 🟨,
79', Vitor Bruno ↓, Lucas J. ↑,
85', Ufala S. ↓, Braga V. ↑,
85', Sinisterra J. ↓, Areias R. ↑,
89', Santos Teixeira L. ↓, Ribeiro R. M. ↑,
90+1', Luiz Miguel ↓, Da Silva J. L. ↑,
90+1', Silva R. ↓, Hachadi K. ↑,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 6).

Alverca is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Varzim is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Alverca is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Alverca to win the game is with odds 1.67.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alverca won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Portuguese Liga 3
20.04.24	Alverca - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Atlético CP - Alverca	0:4 ✺
06.04.24	Alverca - Braga B	1:0 ✺
31.03.24	Alverca - Lusitânia	3:1 ✺
16.03.24	Académica Coimbra - Alverca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TWWWT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
20.04.24	Varzim - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
13.04.24	Braga B - Varzim	2:1 ✺
07.04.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:3 ✺
30.03.24	Varzim - Académica Coimbra	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Covilhã - Varzim	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.24	Varzim - Alverca	0:1

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