Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 9

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Varzim SC (Póvoa de Varzim)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Varzim		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.8	2.85
	2.6	2.85	2.75
	2.62	2.73	3.16	Watch
	2.48	2.67	3.11
	2.6	2.85	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (3.02)	2.78 ↑ (2.57)	2.92 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varzim
35.9%

Draw
32.8%

Lusitânia
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.1%

35.4%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

35.2%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Varzim's performance.

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Varzim that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Varzim - Lusitânia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Momo Mbaye (G) 22. Araujo C. 25. Chicao 80. Gomes A. 4. Henriques L. 19. Lopes A. 23. Monteiro J. 99. Moshood M. 3. Nuno P. 8. Oliveira R. 85. Rebelo M.	1. Cioletti G. (G) 85. Castro D. 29. Cerveira T. 4. Collard D. 22. Faria B. 77. Goba Zakpa 6. Martins H. 18. Pereira D. 11. Pereira M. 80. Renato Luis 10. Ribeiro S.
Substitutes
49. Costa P. (G) 13. Freitas R. 14. Graca H. 70. Lapas Montenegro L. M. 5. Milhazes A. 10. Pereira N. 2. Pimenta G. 7. Ribeiro R. M. 9. Silva Nhaga I.	12. Arsenio 21. Joao Vasco 28. Mesquita T. 5. Oliveira J. 41. Ricardo M. (G) 3. Silverio 88. Teixeira M. 8. Tokinho Doria 14. Valente M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Moshood M. ⚽,
7', Ribeiro S. 🟨,
14', Chicao 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Moshood M. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Pereira D. ↓, Arsenio ↑,
51', Oliveira R. 🟨,
66', 3 - 0, Moshood M. ⚽,
70', Ribeiro S. ↓, Teixeira M. ↑,
70', Castro D. ↓, Joao Vasco ↑,
71', Renato Luis ↓, Mesquita T. ↑,
71', Rebelo M. ↓, Lapas Montenegro L. M. ↑,
71', Moshood M. ↓, Silva Nhaga I. ↑,
72', 🟨,
80', Mesquita T. 🟨,
80', Monteiro J. ↓, Pimenta G. ↑,
81', Oliveira R. ↓, Graca H. ↑,
84', Araujo C. ↓, Ribeiro R. M. ↑,
87', Ribeiro R. M. 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 0, Ribeiro R. M. ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Varzim won 2.

Recent matches Varzim is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Lusitânia is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Varzim won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 11:9 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Varzim won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:5 (average 2.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
06.04.25	Amarante - Varzim	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Fafe - Varzim	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Varzim - 1 Dezembro	2:0 ✺
09.03.25	Varzim - Sporting Lisbon B	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Belenenses - Varzim	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWTT
- Lusitânia FC
Portuguese Liga 3
05.04.25	Lusitânia - Sporting Lisbon B	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Lusitânia - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
15.03.25	Atlético CP - Lusitânia	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	1 Dezembro - Lusitânia	1:3 ✺
01.03.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
15.02.25	Lusitânia - Varzim	2:0
30.11.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	0:0
16.08.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	1:0
07.04.24	Varzim - Lusitânia	4:3
11.02.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:0
08.12.23	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:1
25.08.23	Varzim - Lusitânia	3:0

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