Match Info

PORTUGAL: Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 9 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Amarante Stadium (Amarante)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amarante		Atlético CP

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.95	2.95
	2.28	3.05	3.05
	2.48	2.98	3.23
	2.42	2.94	3.21	Watch
	2.38	3.03	3.14	Watch
	2.31	2.95	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.34)	2.98 ↑ (2.87)	3.11 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amarante
39.4%

Draw
30.9%

Atlético CP
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

32%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

31.8%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amarante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Atlético CP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético CP than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Amarante - Atlético CP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
65. Figueiredo D. (G) 17. Filipe R. 4. Filipe J. 88. Aguiar E. 99. Bright 5. Guedes R. 12. Zangre A. 7. Sousa C. 18. Okoli F. 8. Helder Pedro 10. Semedo K.	1. Ribeiro L. (G) 31. Paulinho 4. Henriques D. 23. Almeida B. 29. Dinamite D. 28. Cruz H. 8. Pipo 10. Caleb 14. Joaozinho 17. Silva D. 11. Franco E.
Substitutes
30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 9. Cardoso F. 6. Daniel Alves 80. Dinho 13. Flores R. (G) 42. Iroanya E. 16. Leandro M. 2. Ribeiro O. 70. Zakari B.	7. Barandas M. 30. Dias J. (G) 5. Durand V. 20. Gonzalez F. 45. Junior T. 60. Marques R. 77. Mendes J. 9. Nicolas Souza 22. Pinheiro E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Helder Pedro ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Filipe R. 🟨,
61', Silva D. ↓, Nicolas Souza ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Semedo K. ⚽, Zangre A. (A),
68', Joaozinho ↓, Barandas M. ↑,
72', Filipe R. ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,
73', Sousa C. ↓, Iroanya E. ↑,
81', Pipo ↓, Marques R. ↑,
81', Franco E. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
81', Cruz H. ↓, Pinheiro E. ↑,
82', 🟨,
84', Semedo K. ↓, Cardoso F. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 5).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Amarante could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Amarante have a series of guest games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
01.03.25	Lusitânia - Amarante	2:1 ✺
23.02.25	1 Dezembro - Amarante	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Amarante - Fafe	1:3 ✺
08.02.25	Varzim - Amarante	1:2 ✺
26.01.25	Vilaverdense - Amarante	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LLLWW
- Atlético CP
Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.25	Atlético CP - Fafe	4:0 ✺
22.02.25	Varzim - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético CP - Sporting Lisbon B	0:0 ✺
07.02.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Atlético CP - Oliveira Hospital	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLTTW

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