Match Info

Liga 3 - Promotion Group - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Amarante

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.2	4.65
	1.78	3.33	5.21
	1.65	3.53	5.51	Watch
	1.75	3	4.8
	1.74	3.4	4.97
	1.64	3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.68)	3.24 ↑ (3)	4.89 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
53.3%

Draw
28.1%

Amarante
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

28.3%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.8%

26.6%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Amarante has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amarante than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Belenenses - Amarante Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 39. Pinto A. 66. Cesinha 11. Duda 2. Machado J. 14. Afonso A. 20. Paulo D. 13. Cuca (C) 17. Horta Leitao D. 9. Souza E. 27. Barros E.	1. Duarte M. (G) 22. Vivas S. 3. Mendes F. 4. Filipe J. 28. Pedro R. 6. Almeida F. 5. Innusah H. 8. Zangre A. 80. Ventura 90. Arome 23. Saint-Louis J.
Substitutes
23. Bruninho 31. David Rebelo 7. Eduardo W. 77. Jansonas R. 15. Lucas J. 28. Pinto G. (G) 10. Sambu M. 5. Teixeira J. 19. Valente A.	88. Aguiar E. 30. Antunes Tiago C. J. 7. Conceicao M. 13. Flores R. (G) 58. Meireles A. 20. Moreno Tavares Cunha M. 2. Ribeiro O. 10. Rodrigues D. 99. Roger

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Ventura ⚽,
40', Machado J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
63', Cuca ↓, Sambu M. ↑,
64', Arome ↓, Moreno Tavares Cunha M. ↑,
64', Duda ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
64', Innusah H. ↓, Meireles A. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Saint-Louis J. ⚽,
76', Machado J. ↓, Jansonas R. ↑,
78', Saint-Louis J. ↓, Conceicao M. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Souza E. ⚽,
86', Ventura 🟨,
90+4', Ventura ↓, Aguiar E. ↑,
90+5', Almeida F. ↓, Ribeiro O. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Amarante may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Belenenses is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Belenenses won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	3:2 ✺
15.02.26	Vitoria Guimarães B - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Belenenses - Trofense	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	União de Santarém - Belenenses	2:1 ✺
17.01.26	Belenenses - 1 Dezembro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WTTLW
- Amarante FC
Portuguese Liga 3
21.02.26	Amarante - Mafra	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Varzim - Amarante	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Amarante - Trofense	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Paredes - Amarante	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Amarante - Braga B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
10.05.25	Amarante - Belenenses	1:4
15.03.25	Belenenses - Amarante	0:0

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