Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Medideira Stadium (Amora)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Amora		Belenenses

	1	X	2
	2.98	3.05	2.22
	3.21	3.24	2.33
	3.44	3.10	2.17	Watch
	3	3.04	2.29
	3.84	3.2	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.29 ↓ (3.92)	3.13 ↓ (3.21)	2.18 ↑ (1.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amora
28.1%

Draw
29.6%

Belenenses
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.1%

28.2%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

28.4%

48.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Belenenses might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amora than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belenenses could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Amora - Belenenses Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Diego (G) 71. Semedo D. 25. Duque T. 28. Cruz H. 13. Lopes M. 16. Teixeira P. 77. Pala F. 8. Antunes M. 17. Furtado E. 9. Oliveira J. 19. Barros G.	99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 4. Nuno Tomas 5. Teixeira J. 27. Barros E. 14. Afonso A. 20. Paulo D. 21. Morgado T. 31. David Rebelo 9. Paredes J. 10. Sambu M.
Substitutes
48. Caio Ribas 27. Camara B. 3. Correia T. 29. Diop A. 23. Marques F. 22. Marques J. 24. Miguel I. (G) 99. Ribeiro E. 37. Wendel	66. Cesinha 13. Cuca 11. Duda 7. Eduardo W. 17. Horta Leitao D. 39. Pinto A. 28. Pinto G. (G) 16. Souza E. 19. Valente A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', 🟨,
33', 🟨,
40', Teixeira P. 🟨,
44', Barros G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Furtado E. ↓, Camara B. ↑,
58', Duque T. ↓, Correia T. ↑,
58', Teixeira P. ↓, Marques F. ↑,
61', Morgado T. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
61', Paredes J. ↓, Souza E. ↑,
66', Antunes M. 🟨,
67', Sambu M. ↓, Duda ↑,
70', Barros G. ↓, Ribeiro E. ↑,
76', Afonso A. ↓, Eduardo W. ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Souza E. ⚽,
83', Antunes M. ↓, Diop A. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 2, Eduardo W. ⚽,
90+3', Camara B. 🟨,

Preview

Amora has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Belenenses is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Belenenses has had a series of home games.

Belenenses could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Amora won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Amora won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Amora FC
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Amora - União de Santarém	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Belenenses - Amora	1:0 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
22.08.25	1 Dezembro - Amora	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Amora - Caldas	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Atlético CP - Amora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 WLTLW
- Os Belenenses
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Belenenses - Marítimo	2:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
13.09.25	Académica Coimbra - Belenenses	4:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Belenenses - Amora	1:0 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
23.08.25	Belenenses - Lusitano GC	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Belenenses - Atlético CP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Belenenses - Amora	1:0 ET
Portuguese Liga 3
30.04.23	Amora - Belenenses	3:0
09.04.23	Belenenses - Amora	3:0
21.01.23	Amora - Belenenses	2:1
17.09.22	Belenenses - Amora	3:3

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