Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 15

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Belenenses		Amora

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.75
	1.7	3.57	4.98	Watch
	1.7	3.3	4.8
	1.66	3.4	4.89
	1.62	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.49)	3.41 ↓ (3.82)	4.88 ↓ (6.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
54.7%

Draw
26.7%

Amora
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.2%

23.8%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

22.8%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Belenenses's form might have worsened.

Amora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Belenenses, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amora than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Belenenses - Amora Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Belenenses (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Oliveira G. (G) 22. Bandarra M. 27. Barros E. 13. Cuca (C) 31. David Rebelo 17. Horta Leitao D. 4. Nuno Tomas 9. Paredes J. 20. Paulo D. 39. Pinto A. 5. Teixeira J.	95. Diego (G) 8. Antunes M. (C) 27. Camara B. 3. Correia T. 28. Cruz H. 17. Furtado E. 4. Marlom Oliveira 23. Marques F. 9. Oliveira J. 77. Pala F. 71. Semedo D.
Substitutes
66. Cesinha 53. Dias B. 11. Duda 7. Eduardo W. 15. Lucas J. 2. Machado J. 21. Morgado T. 19. Valente A. 85. Varela D.	19. Barros G. 13. Lopes M. . Lourenco C. 22. Marques J. 24. Miguel I. (G) 6. Renzo Trotta 99. Ribeiro E. 16. Teixeira P. 10. Toni

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, David Rebelo ⚽,
45', Nuno Tomas 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
58', 1 - 1, Marlom Oliveira ⚽,
61', Bandarra M. ↓, Morgado T. ↑,
62', Cuca ↓, Machado J. ↑,
70', Furtado E. 🟨,
71', Camara B. ↓, Ribeiro E. ↑,
72', 2 - 1, Teixeira J. ⚽,
77', David Rebelo ↓, Duda ↑,
80', 3 - 1, Horta Leitao D. ⚽,
82', Furtado E. ↓, Marques J. ↑,
82', Marques F. ↓, Lourenco C. ↑,
86', Horta Leitao D. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
87', Semedo D. ↓, Barros G. ↑,
90+1', Duda 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 3.

Belenenses is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Amora's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Belenenses is considered a favorite.

We predict that Belenenses will win today's game, with odds of 1.63.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Belenenses won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Belenenses won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 3
21.12.25	Covilhã - Belenenses	0:4 ✺
14.12.25	Belenenses - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitano GC - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Atlético CP - Belenenses	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Belenenses - Mafra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWWW
- Amora FC
Portuguese Liga 3
20.12.25	Amora - Mafra	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	União de Santarém - Amora	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Amora - 1 Dezembro	1:1 ✺
30.11.25	Caldas - Amora	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Amora - Atlético CP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.09.25	Amora - Belenenses	0:2
Taça de Portugal
30.08.25	Belenenses - Amora	1:0 ET
Portuguese Liga 3
30.04.23	Amora - Belenenses	3:0
09.04.23	Belenenses - Amora	3:0
21.01.23	Amora - Belenenses	2:1
17.09.22	Belenenses - Amora	3:3

Belenenses - Amora: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide