Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/16-FINALS

Date: 7 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Referee: Munuera Montero J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Amorebieta		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	5.25	3.6	1.7	Watch
	5	3.6	1.68	Watch
	5.65	3.75	1.69
	5.65	3.75	1.68
	4.8	3.5	1.6	Watch
	5.3	3.72	1.69	Watch
	4.7	3.5	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.2 ↑ (4.17)	3.63 ↑ (3.38)	1.68 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
18.1%

Draw
25.9%

Celta de Vigo
55.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.4%

27.6%

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22%

27.2%

50.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Celta de Vigo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Celta de Vigo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Celta de Vigo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.8%	9.5%	85.7%

Amorebieta - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: Celta de Vigo will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Magunagoitia J. (G) 2. Mier J. 24. Gaya J. 28. Garreta F. 11. Seguin I. (C) 7. Dorrio J. 10. Edwards R. 8. Moran E. 17. Rodriguez R. 9. Jauregi E. 27. Quintero L.	13. Villar I. (G) 20. Vazquez K. (C) 4. Nunez U. 16. Jailson 23. Sanchez M. 29. Rodriguez M. 6. Dotor C. 30. Sotelo H. 14. de la Torre L. 19. Swedberg W. 12. Douvikas A.
Substitutes
30. Campos P. (G) 21. Carbonell A. 14. Eraso J. 3. Etxeita X. 16. Lasure D. 4. Manu 1. Marino U. (G) 22. Morcillo J. 15. Nunez A. 20. Sibo K.	33. Alvarez H. 10. Aspas I. 8. Beltran F. 26. Carrillo J. B. (G) 31. Dominguez J. 18. Larsen J. S. 35. Lopez J. 3. Mingueza O. 7. Perez C. 32. Rodriguez J. 5. Tapia R.
Coaches
Jandro	Benitez R.

Preview

Neutral location.

Amorebieta is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Celta is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Amorebieta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Celta is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish LaLiga2
21.12.23	Amorebieta - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
17.12.23	Amorebieta - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Valladolid - Amorebieta	2:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
06.12.23	Levante - Amorebieta	0:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
03.12.23	Amorebieta - Burgos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LTLWL
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
03.01.24	Celta de Vigo - Betis	2:1 ✺
20.12.23	Villarreal - Celta de Vigo	3:2 ✺
16.12.23	Celta de Vigo - Granada	1:0 ✺
11.12.23	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
07.12.23	Sestao - Celta de Vigo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWTW

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