Match Info

LaLiga - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Garcia V. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 5
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ LaLiga
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Celta de Vigo

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.9	Watch
	1.98	3.45	3.95	Watch
	2.06	3.53	3.97
	1.99	3.33	3.83	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.75
	2	3.58	3.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.45)	3.44 ↑ (3.28)	3.73 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
46.3%

Draw
28%

Celta de Vigo
25.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

29.6%

32.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rayo Vallecano's performance.

Celta de Vigo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celta de Vigo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rayo Vallecano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celta de Vigo than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celta de Vigo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65.5%	17.2%	17.2%

Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 19 - 65.5%). Celta will win (votes: 5 - 17.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 48.2% – 82.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Rayo Vallecano (1.60) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 13 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 6. Ciss P. 22. Pacha 7. Palazon I. 4. Diaz P. 23. Valentin O. (C) 18. Garcia A. 19. de Frutos J. 10. Camello S.	13. Radu I. (G) 12. Fernandez M. 29. Lago Y. 21. Ristic M. 17. Rueda J. 8. Beltran F. (C) 22. Sotelo H. 5. Carreira S. 23. Alvarez H. 7. Iglesias B. 15. Zaragoza B.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 28. Becerra S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 3. Chavarria P. 15. Gumbau G. 17. Lopez U. 32. Mendy N. 40. Molina A. (G) 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	10. Aspas I. 24. Dominguez C. 18. Duran P. 39. El Abdellaoui J. 9. Jutgla F. 3. Mingueza O. 6. Moriba I. 14. Rodriguez D. 32. Rodriguez J. 16. Roman M. 2. Starfelt C. 1. Villar I. (G)
Coaches
Perez I.	Giraldez C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
40', Palazon I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 0 - 1, Iglesias B. ⚽, Alvarez H. (A),
55', Rueda J. 🟨,
60', Rueda J. ↓, Mingueza O. ↑,
60', Alvarez H. ↓, Duran P. ↑,
60', Pacha ↓, Chavarria P. ↑,
60', Camello S. ↓, Alemao ↑,
65', 1 - 1, de Frutos J. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
68', Palazon I. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,
71', Sotelo H. ↓, Moriba I. ↑,
79', Ristic M. ↓, Starfelt C. ↑,
79', Zaragoza B. ↓, Jutgla F. ↑,
90+1', de Frutos J. ↓, Becerra S. ↑,
90+1', Diaz P. ↓, Lopez U. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Celta has had a series of home games.

Rayo Vallecano might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe (Muscle Injury) Mumin A. (Knee Injury) Nteka R. (Contusion)

There will not play in Celta: Aidoo J. (Coach's decision) Cervi F. (Coach's decision)

There are questionable in Rayo Vallecano: Mendy N. (Lacking Match Fitness) Perez F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Celta: Alonso M. (Knee Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.25	Osasuna - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Barcelona	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Rayo Vallecano - Neman Grodno	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.08.25	Athletic Bilbao - Rayo Vallecano	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Neman Grodno - Rayo Vallecano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTWLW
- Celta de Vigo
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.25	Celta de Vigo - Girona	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Villarreal	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Betis	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mallorca - Celta de Vigo	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Celta de Vigo - Getafe	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
18.05.25	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	1:2
10.01.25	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	2:1
31.03.24	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
11.12.23	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	0:0
11.03.23	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
10.11.22	Rayo Vallecano - Celta de Vigo	0:0
05.02.22	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	2:0

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