Match Info

Date: 11 August 2022, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez (Maracay) 🌤️ ...


	Aragua		Zamora

	1	X	2
	4	3	1.87	Watch
	4	3.05	1.8
	4	3.1	1.87
	3.9	2.99	1.92
	4	3.1	1.91
	3.92	3.24	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (3.58)	3.08 ↑ (2.85)	1.88 ↓ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
22.7%

Draw
29.3%

Zamora
47.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25%

31.3%

43.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.7%

32.2%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Zamora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamora than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zamora, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	17.9%	67.9%

Aragua - Zamora Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 4 - 14.3%). Zamora will win (votes: 19 - 67.9%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zamora: 50.6% – 85.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Libertadores ~ Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aragua won 2.

Aragua has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Zamora is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Aragua could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Zamora have a series of guest games.

Zamora will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 22 head-to-head matches Aragua won 4 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 19-35.

Including matches at home between the teams Aragua won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 15-18.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
04.08.22	Carabobo - Aragua	5:1 ✺
31.07.22	Aragua - Deportivo La Guaira	0:2 ✺
24.07.22	Deportivo Lara - Aragua	2:2 ✺
14.07.22	Aragua - Monagas	2:4 ✺
07.07.22	Universidad Central - Aragua	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLL
- Zamora FC
Club Friendly
06.08.22	Alcorcón - Zamora	0:3 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.08.22	Zamora - Deportivo Táchira	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.22	Real Ávila - Zamora	0:1 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
30.07.22	Metropolitanos - Zamora	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.22	Bembibre - Zamora	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
07.04.22	Zamora - Aragua	1:1
10.12.20	Aragua - Zamora	3:1
15.11.20	Zamora - Aragua	2:0
15.02.20	Zamora - Aragua	1:0
Club Friendly
14.01.20	Zamora - Aragua	0:1
Venezuelan Primera Division
27.10.19	Zamora - Aragua	0:0
03.05.19	Aragua - Zamora	0:2

Aragua - Zamora