Match Info

Date: 14 July 2022, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Hermanos Ghersi Paez (Maracay)

Referee: Bracamonte O. (Ven)


	Aragua		Monagas

	1	X	2
	2.8	3	2.35	Watch
	2.8	2.6	2.6
	3	2.9	2.34
	2.95	2.46	2.78
	3	2.8	2.45
	2.9	2.9	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↓ (3.18)	2.78 ↓ (2.88)	2.53 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aragua
31.3%

Draw
32.7%

Monagas
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

31.5%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

33.3%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aragua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Monagas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monagas than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Monagas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.8%	47.4%	36.8%

Aragua - Monagas Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Aragua will win (votes: 3 - 15.8%). Monagas will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 47.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 15 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Libertadores ~ Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aragua won 2.

Aragua is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Monagas is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Monagas will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Aragua won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Aragua won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
07.07.22	Universidad Central - Aragua	2:1 ✺
30.06.22	Aragua - Metropolitanos	2:3 ✺
16.06.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Aragua	1:0 ✺
09.06.22	Deportivo Táchira - Aragua	2:0 ✺
05.06.22	Aragua - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLLW
- Monagas SC
Venezuelan Primera Division
08.07.22	Monagas - Deportivo La Guaira	2:2 ✺
01.07.22	Estudiantes de Mérida - Monagas	1:1 ✺
18.06.22	Monagas - Deportivo Táchira	3:0 ✺
11.06.22	Zamora - Monagas	2:0 ✺
02.06.22	Monagas - Zamora	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
06.05.22	Monagas - Aragua	3:1
30.11.20	Aragua - Monagas	3:2
05.11.20	Monagas - Aragua	1:0
23.08.19	Aragua - Monagas	1:1
03.03.19	Monagas - Aragua	0:1
26.09.18	Aragua - Monagas	0:1
25.03.18	Monagas - Aragua	2:2

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