Match Info

Date: 4 August 2022, Thursday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)


	Carabobo		Aragua

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.5	5	Watch
	1.6	3.1	5.3
	1.56	3.55	5.4
	1.6	3.24	5.89
	1.65	3.2	5.5
	1.63	3.52	5.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.85)	3.35 ↑ (3.24)	5.42 ↑ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carabobo
56.4%

Draw
27%

Aragua
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.8%

27.9%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

26.4%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabobo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carabobo's performance.

Aragua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aragua might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aragua than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aragua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Carabobo - Aragua Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 12 - 57.1%). Aragua will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carabobo: 35.9% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Copa Sudamericana ~ Play Offs) and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carabobo won 2.

Recent matches Carabobo is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aragua has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Carabobo is a favorite.

Last 25 head-to-head matches Carabobo won 12 matches, drawn 10 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 30-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Carabobo won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 21-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
31.07.22	Portuguesa Acarígua - Carabobo	0:1 ✺
21.07.22	Carabobo - Hermanos Colmenares	1:0 ✺
17.07.22	Zulia - Carabobo	2:0 ✺
08.07.22	Carabobo - Academia Puerto Cabello	0:1 ✺
03.07.22	Deportivo La Guaira - Carabobo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLLL
- Aragua FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
31.07.22	Aragua - Deportivo La Guaira	0:2 ✺
24.07.22	Deportivo Lara - Aragua	2:2 ✺
14.07.22	Aragua - Monagas	2:4 ✺
07.07.22	Universidad Central - Aragua	2:1 ✺
30.06.22	Aragua - Metropolitanos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Venezuelan Primera Division
15.04.22	Aragua - Carabobo	1:1
22.10.21	Aragua - Carabobo	2:1
01.09.21	Carabobo - Aragua	2:0
18.07.21	Aragua - Carabobo	2:0
30.05.21	Carabobo - Aragua	3:1
21.09.19	Carabobo - Aragua	2:1
30.03.19	Aragua - Carabobo	0:0

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