Match Info

SPAIN: COPA DEL REY - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 1 November 2023, Wednesday


	Arandina		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.3	2.05
	3.7	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2	Watch
	3.84	3.08	2.03
	3.7	3.4	2	Watch
	3.98	3.38	1.94	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.74 ↑ (3.23)	3.28 ↑ (3.1)	2.01 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arandina
25%

Draw
28.5%

Real Murcia
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

30.1%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

29.7%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arandina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Real Murcia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Murcia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arandina than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (-5%)

Arandina - Real Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez A. (G) 19. Ochoa D. 18. Jaime Marquez 4. Pesca J. 15. Pepe Otu 12. Atomo 6. Vitolo 11. Zazu 22. Hajimari Ceesay 20. Kevin Manzano 7. Ayoub El Battioui	13. Piedra I. (G) 2. Ruiz J. 30. Hernandez J. 6. Gonzalez A. 3. Baro M. 18. Rojas C. 28. Leandro Duarte 10. Guarrotxena I. 21. Pina Tomas 32. Toral A. 25. Rubio A.
Substitutes
17. Cabral R. 9. Fredi Sualdea 13. Roberto Jara (G) 14. Sanchez Alcaraz C. 10. Sergio Santa Cruz 21. Serrano Iranzo G.	26. Andres Lopez 11. Carrillo J. 17. Dani Vega . Garcia Manu 7. Gomez I. 31. Juande Garcia . Martinez Juande 9. Rodri Rios 29. Santiago E. (G) 20. Santos S. 33. Totti

Preview

Arandina is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Murcia is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Murcia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arandina CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
28.10.23	Arandina - Cayón	1:1 ✺
22.10.23	Langreo - Arandina	2:0 ✺
14.10.23	Arandina - Valladolid B	1:2 ✺
08.10.23	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Arandina	1:2 ✺
30.09.23	Arandina - RC Villalbes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLWL
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.10.23	Real Murcia - Linares Deportivo	1:0 ✺
21.10.23	Mérida AD - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
15.10.23	Real Murcia - Algeciras	1:0 ✺
11.10.23	Ibiza - Real Murcia	3:1 ✺
08.10.23	Atlético Baleares - Real Murcia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWLW

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