Match Info

Date: 1 October 2020, Thursday


	Ararat-Armenia		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	17	5.25	1.18	Watch
	12.5	5.5	1.19
	16.05	6	1.2	Watch
	15	5.8	1.19
	18.25	5.99	1.21
	17	5.5	1.17	Watch
	17.5	6.25	1.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	16.19 ↑ (8.19)	5.76 ↑ (4.4)	1.19 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ararat-Armenia
5.7%

Draw
16.1%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
78.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.4%

21.1%

67.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.8%

18.1%

78.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ararat-Armenia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ararat-Armenia's form might have worsened.

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crvena Zvezda Belgrade's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ararat-Armenia than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	2.3%	93.5%

Ararat Armenia - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Users Predictions: Crvena Zvezda Belgrade will win (201 of 215 users predict this - 93.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 90.19% – 96.79%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

No spectators.

Recent matches Ararat-Armenia is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Crvena Zvezda is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recently Ararat-Armenia have a series of home games.

In this match Crvena Zvezda is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Europa League
24.09.20	Ararat-Armenia - Celje	1:0 ET ✺
17.09.20	Ararat-Armenia - Fola Esch	4:3 ET ✺
Armenian Premier League
11.09.20	Ararat-Armenia - Lori	1:2 ✺
23.08.20	Ararat-Armenia - Gandzasar	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
19.08.20	Ararat-Armenia - Omonia	0:1 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLTL
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
26.09.20	Mladost Lučani - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
20.09.20	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Voždovac	6:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.09.20	Omonia - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	2:1 penalties ✺
Serbian Superliga
11.09.20	Čukarički - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
30.08.20	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Bačka Topola	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW

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