Match Info

Premier League - Round 15

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	Arba Minch		Mechal

	1	X	2
	3.55	2.68	2.18
	3.8	2.71	2.2	Watch
	3.6	2.5	2.15
	3.75	2.72	2.14
	3.8	2.75	2.16
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (3.43)	2.67 ↓ (2.86)	2.17 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arba Minch
24.4%

Draw
33.8%

Mechal
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

32.1%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.3%

30.3%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arba Minch has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Mechal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arba Minch than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mechal than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Arba Minch - Mechal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
68', 0 - 1, Gugsa C. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', 0 - 2, Musiige C. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 7).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mechal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Mechal will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Arba Minch won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Arba Minch won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mechal	38	14	15	9	44:31	13	57
20	Arba Menche	38	7	14	17	30:46	-16	35

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arba Minch FC
Ethiopian Premier League
08.01.26	Sidama Coffee - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
03.01.26	Arba Minch - Hawassa City	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Welayta Dicha - Arba Minch	0:0 ✺
24.12.25	Arba Minch - Mekelle 70 Enderta	0:2 ✺
19.12.25	Ethiopia Nigd Bank - Arba Minch	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TTTLL
- Mechal SC
Ethiopian Premier League
10.01.26	Mechal - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Mechal	2:0 ✺
31.12.25	Mechal - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Adama City - Mechal	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Mechal - Ethio Electric	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
15.04.25	Mechal - Arba Minch	1:0
29.11.24	Arba Minch - Mechal	1:3

Arba Minch - Mechal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide