Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Mechal		Bahir Dar Kenema

	1	X	2
	2.82	2.62	2.62
	2.97	2.61	2.72	Watch
	2.8	2.5	2.7
	2.91	2.7	2.81
	3	2.57	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.66)	2.6 ↓ (2.81)	2.71 ↓ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mechal
31.4%

Draw
35%

Bahir Dar Kenema
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.6%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mechal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Bahir Dar Kenema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mechal than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mechal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahir Dar Kenema than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Mechal - Bahir Dar Kenema Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
58', 0 - 1, Alemu F. ⚽,
69', 0 - 2, Disasa G. ⚽,
90+5', 1 - 2, Abera M. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 7 and 12).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mechal won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mechal won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Mechal	38	14	15	9	44:31	13	57
11	Bahir Dar Kenema	38	9	21	8	28:28	0	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mechal SC
Ethiopian Premier League
04.01.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Mechal	2:0 ✺
31.12.25	Mechal - Ethiopia Bunna	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Adama City - Mechal	1:3 ✺
21.12.25	Mechal - Ethio Electric	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Hawassa City - Mechal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWTT
- Bahir Dar Kenema
Ethiopian Premier League
05.01.26	Bahir Dar Kenema - Dire Dawa City	0:0 ✺
29.12.25	Welwalo Adigrat - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:0 ✺
24.12.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Fasil Kenema	0:0 ✺
19.12.25	Shire Endaselassie - Bahir Dar Kenema	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Sheger Ketema - Bahir Dar Kenema	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
19.05.25	Bahir Dar Kenema - Mechal	0:0
25.01.25	Mechal - Bahir Dar Kenema	1:1

Mechal - Bahir Dar Kenema: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide