Match Info

Stars League - Round 7

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Almanasa


	Arbil		Al-Karma

	1	X	2
	2.50	2.75	2.70
	2.70	2.88	2.50
	2.84	2.29	3.10
	2.87	2.36	3.11	Watch
	2.80	2.25	3.05
	2.46	3.09	2.85
	2.75	2.40	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↑ (2.63)	2.57 ↓ (3)	2.89 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
33.5%

Draw
35.2%

Al-Karma
31.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.9%

29.7%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

30.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Al-Karma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Karma might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Karma than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Arbil - Al Karma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Amadi S. ⚽, Faisal A. (A),
38', 0 - 2, Faisal A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 1 - 2, Walid M. ⚽, Bayesh I. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).

Arbil is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Al-Karma is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al-Karma may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17:7	10	24
5	Erbil	11	5	3	3	14:7	7	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
08.09.26	Arbil - Diyala	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Arbil	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Arbil - Al-Minaa	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	0:1 ✺
21.08.26	Arbil - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WTWWT
- Al-Karma SC
Iraqi Premier League
09.09.26	Al-Karma - Al-Naft	3:0 ✺
03.09.26	Diyala - Al-Karma	1:2 ✺
30.08.26	Al-Karma - Karbala	2:0 ✺
26.08.26	Al-Kahraba - Al-Karma	1:1 ✺
21.08.26	Al-Karma - Al-Shorta Baghdad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
07.03.26	Al-Karma - Arbil	2:3
03.10.25	Arbil - Al-Karma	2:1
23.04.25	Al-Karma - Arbil	1:0
10.01.25	Arbil - Al-Karma	1:1

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