Match Info

Stars League - Round 25

Date: 31 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)

Where to Watch on TV:


Iraq	Iraqia Syriac


	Arbil		Al-Zawraa

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.92	2.88
	2.27	2.67	3.29
	2.26	3.03	3.11	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3
	2.31	2.73	3.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.48)	2.83 ↓ (3.11)	3.12 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
39.2%

Draw
31.8%

Al-Zawraa
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

29.4%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

28.5%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Al-Zawraa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Zawraa than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Arbil - Al Zawraa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Cabrera M. ⚽,
72', 1 - 1, Riascos B. ⚽,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 0.

Each of the two teams have built a series of wins lately.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:14. (average 0.3:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Al Zawraa	8	5	3	0	15:3	12	18
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
27.03.26	Naft Maysan - Arbil	0:0 ✺
23.03.26	Arbil - Diyala	2:0 ✺
18.03.26	Duhok - Arbil	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Arbil - Al-Minaa	3:2 ✺
07.03.26	Al-Karma - Arbil	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWWWW
- Al-Zawraa
Iraqi Premier League
25.03.26	Al-Zawraa - Al-Kahraba	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Al-Zawraa - Amanat Baghdad	3:2 ✺
17.03.26	Al-Gharraf - Al-Zawraa	0:1 ✺
13.03.26	Al-Zawraa - Naft Maysan	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Newroz - Al-Zawraa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
17.01.26	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	1:0
12.03.25	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	4:0
05.10.24	Arbil - Al-Zawraa	1:1
01.05.24	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	3:0
23.12.23	Arbil - Al-Zawraa	0:1
19.05.23	Al-Zawraa - Arbil	3:1
15.12.22	Arbil - Al-Zawraa	0:1

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