Match Info

Stars League - Round 21

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday


	Al-Karma		Arbil

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.88	3.85
	1.96	2.9	3.81
	1.97	3	3.98	Watch
	2	2.75	3.75
	1.9	2.92	4.3	Watch
	1.78	2.8	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.89)	2.88 ↓ (3.1)	3.92 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Karma
46.2%

Draw
31%

Arbil
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.3%

30%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

32.5%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Karma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Karma than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Karma, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Al Karma - Arbil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 1 - 0, Hussein A. (Penalty Awarded),
35', 1 - 1, Temirov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 1 - 2, John C. ⚽,
69', 2 - 2, Hussein A. (Penalty Awarded),
83', 2 - 3, Omar A. S. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 and 5).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Arbil may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Al-Karma is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Al-Karma won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Al-Karma won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Karma SC
Iraqi Premier League
01.03.26	Al-Minaa - Al-Karma	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Al-Karma - Naft Maysan	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Diyala - Al-Karma	1:1 ✺
05.02.26	Al-Karma - Al-Talaba	1:1 ✺
31.01.26	Al-Karma - Al-Karkh	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWTTT
- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
21.02.26	Al-Qasim - Arbil	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Arbil - Zakho	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Arbil - Al-Naft	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Amanat Baghdad - Arbil	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Al-Karkh - Arbil	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
03.10.25	Arbil - Al-Karma	2:1
23.04.25	Al-Karma - Arbil	1:0
10.01.25	Arbil - Al-Karma	1:1

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