Match Info

IRAQ: Stars League - Round 16

Date: 23 January 2025, Thursday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)


	Arbil		Karbala

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	3.4
	2.02	3.18	3.47
	2.01	3.28	3.51	Watch
	1.99	3.26	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.07)	3.21 ↑ (3.1)	3.46 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
45.3%

Draw
28.4%

Karbala
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

29.4%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.3%

28.6%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Karbala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Arbil aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karbala than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Arbil - Karbala Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Aws M. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Rashid O. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, Ben Souda Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 16).

Recent matches Arbil is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Karbala has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Karbala could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arbil will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Arbil won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:4 (average 2.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Arbil won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:1 (average 1.7:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
19.01.25	Al-Karkh - Arbil	2:4 ✺
15.01.25	Al-Talaba - Arbil	2:1 ✺
10.01.25	Arbil - Al-Karma	1:1 ✺
04.01.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Arbil	4:1 ✺
11.12.24	Arbil - Al-Kahraba	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLTLW
- Karbala
Iraqi Premier League
18.01.25	Karbala - Al-Shorta Baghdad	0:1 ✺
13.01.25	Al-Qasim - Karbala	1:0 ✺
07.01.25	Karbala - Duhok	1:2 ✺
02.01.25	Al-Karma - Karbala	0:0 ✺
10.12.24	Al-Zawraa - Karbala	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
05.07.24	Arbil - Karbala	4:1
19.02.24	Karbala - Arbil	3:5
12.03.23	Arbil - Karbala	1:0
26.08.13	Arbil - Karbala	N/A

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