Match Info

efbet League - Round 5

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Referee: Ginchev G. (Bul)


	Arda Kardzhali		CSKA Sofia

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	2.01	Watch
	5	3.2	1.73
	3.45	3.2	2.02	Watch
	3.72	3.17	2.13
	3.58	3.01	2.18	Watch
	4.5	3	1.8
	3.73	3.34	2.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↓ (4.53)	3.19 ↓ (3.69)	1.99 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arda Kardzhali
23.8%

Draw
29.3%

CSKA Sofia
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

25.3%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

26.2%

55.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arda Kardzhali has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

CSKA Sofia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and CSKA Sofia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for CSKA Sofia than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that CSKA Sofia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	54.5%	27.3%

Arda Kardzhali - CSKA Sofia Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Arda will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). CSKA Sofia will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 2 - 33.3%). CSKA Sofia (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Arda (1.74) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Arda (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Arda (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 6 - 60%). CSKA Sofia (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 18. Huseynov C. 93. Eboa F. 35. Velkovski D. 4. Idowu D. 80. Kotev L. 10. Kovachev S. 20. Yusein S. 99. Karagaren B. 8. Kabov A.	21. Lapoukhov F. (G) 19. Turitsov I. 4. Lapena A. (C) 5. Dellova L. 17. Martino A. 6. Jordao B. 28. Pittas I. 30. Panayotov P. 99. Eto'o J. 22. Dodaj K. 9. Godoy L.
Substitutes
2. Gustavo Cascardo 30. Kazakov I. 12. Nedelchev I. (G) 17. Patrick Luan 70. Popov I. 11. Shinyashiki A. 33. Tilev I. 23. Viyachki E. 39. Vutov A.	11. Brahimi M. 1. Busatto G. (G) 13. Cordoba B. 73. Iliev I. 14. Ivanov T. 2. Pastor 3. Sanyang S. 8. Seger D. 7. Skarsem O.
Coaches
Tunchev A.	Kerkez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Kovachev S. 🟨,
32', Martino A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Kabov A. ↓, Shinyashiki A. ↑,
58', Kovachev S. ↓, Patrick Luan ↑,
58', Dodaj K. ↓, Brahimi M. ↑,
58', Turitsov I. ↓, Pastor ↑,
67', Jordao B. ↓, Iliev I. ↑,
68', Yusein S. ↓, Vutov A. ↑,
76', Karagaren B. ↓, Tilev I. ↑,
87', Idowu D. 🟨,
89', 1 - 0, Eboa F. ⚽, Vutov A. (A),
90+1', Brahimi M. 🟨,

Preview

Postponed due to european competitions.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ efbet League (Conference League Group: ) and 12 in the zone efbet League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arda won 2.

Arda is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

CSKA Sofia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Arda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, CSKA Sofia is the team to beat.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Arda won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 15:30. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Arda won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
13.09.25	Spartak Varna - Arda Kardzhali	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Beroe Stara Zagora	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.08.25	Slavia Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLLL
- CSKA Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
13.09.25	CSKA Sofia - Septemvri Sofia	3:1 ✺
30.08.25	Slavia Sofia - CSKA Sofia	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	CSKA Sofia - CSKA 1948 Sofia	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	CSKA Sofia - Cherno More Varna	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - CSKA Sofia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
31.05.25	Arda Kardzhali - CSKA Sofia	2:1 penalties
Bulgarian Cup
26.02.25	CSKA Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	2:1
Bulgarian Parva Liga
16.02.25	CSKA Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	2:0
24.08.24	Arda Kardzhali - CSKA Sofia	2:1
21.04.24	Arda Kardzhali - CSKA Sofia	2:3
Bulgarian Cup
28.02.24	CSKA Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	1:0
Bulgarian Parva Liga
27.10.23	CSKA Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	0:0

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