Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków (Częstochowa)

Referee: Ocenas M. (Svk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2
Poland	TVP Sport


	Raków Częstochowa		Arda Kardzhali

	1	X	2
	1.29	4.5	12	Watch
	1.22	5.5	12
	1.29	4.45	11.5	Watch
	1.3	4.8	12.82
	1.37	4.31	8.14	Watch
	1.32	4.8	12.2	Watch
	1.34	4.8	9.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.37)	4.74 ↑ (4.31)	11.17 ↑ (8.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raków Częstochowa
71.8%

Draw
19.8%

Arda Kardzhali
8.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.3%

21.4%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

19.3%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Arda Kardzhali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Raków Częstochowa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	5.7%	8.6%

Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Raków (2.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Arda (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Raków Częstochowa will win (30 of 35 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.12% – 97.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Raków Częstochowa will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Raków (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Arda (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trelowski K. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 88. Barath P. 5. Bulat M. 26. Otieno E. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 17. Rocha L. 8. Pienko T.	1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 93. Eboa F. 18. Huseynov C. 35. Velkovski D. 4. Idowu D. 80. Kotev L. 10. Kovachev S. 20. Yusein S. 99. Karagaren B. 9. Nikolov G.
Substitutes
11. Adriano 19. Ameyaw M. 18. Brunes J. 28. Diaz J. 66. Konstantopoulos A. 10. Lopez I. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 2. Mosor A. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. 23. Struski K. 48. Zych O. (G)	26. Akandzha B. 2. Gustavo Cascardo 30. Kazakov I. 45. Mane I. 17. Patrick Luan 11. Shinyashiki A. 33. Tilev I. 23. Viyachki E. 39. Vutov A. 92. Yusuf M. (G)
Coaches
Papszun M.	Tunchev A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Pienko T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barath P. ↓, Repka O. ↑,
59', Pienko T. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
60', Rocha L. ↓, Brunes J. ↑,
60', Yusein S. ↓, Vutov A. ↑,
60', Karagaren B. ↓, Shinyashiki A. ↑,
67', Diaby-Fadiga L. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
76', Tudor F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
82', Kovachev S. ↓, Mane I. ↑,
82', Nikolov G. ↓, Patrick Luan ↑,
90+1', Huseynov C. ↓, Viyachki E. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Recent performances by Raków have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arda is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Arda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Raków has had a series of away games.

In this match, Raków is the obvious favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Maccabi Haifa - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
07.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Maccabi Haifa	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	Žilina - Raków Częstochowa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLLW
- Arda Kardzhali
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Kauno Žalgiris	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali	0:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
04.08.25	Botev Plovdiv - Arda Kardzhali	0:5 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.07.25	HJK - Arda Kardzhali	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WTWWW

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