Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Final

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Referee: Pajac I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 2, TVP Sport app


	Arda Kardzhali		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.91	Watch
	3.6	3.2	1.98	Watch
	4.15	3.05	1.92	Watch
	4.46	3.2	1.95
	11.95	5.21	1.26	Watch
	3.6	3.3	2
	4.06	3.45	1.94	Watch
	3.33	3.39	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (3.64)	3.53 ↑ (3.45)	1.87 (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arda Kardzhali
20%

Draw
27.7%

Raków Częstochowa
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

26.4%

48.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

28%

51.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arda Kardzhali has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arda Kardzhali than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.9%	22.6%	64.5%

Arda Kardzhali - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Arda will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Raków will win (votes: 20 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Raków: 49.8% – 83.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Arda (1.81) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - Arda (1.88) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Raków (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.62) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Raków Częstochowa will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Arda (votes: 4 - 21.1%). Raków (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gospodinov A. (C) 21. Velev V. 93. Eboa F. 18. Huseynov C. 35. Velkovski D. 80. Kotev L. 4. Idowu D. 10. Kovachev S. 20. Yusein S. 99. Karagaren B. 9. Nikolov G.	1. Trelowski K. (G) 25. Racovitan B. 24. Arsenic Z. (C) 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. 88. Barath P. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. 19. Ameyaw M. 18. Brunes J. 8. Pienko T.
Substitutes
26. Akandzha B. 2. Gustavo Cascardo 30. Kazakov I. 45. Mane I. 17. Patrick Luan 11. Shinyashiki A. 33. Tilev I. 27. Todev B. 23. Viyachki E. 39. Vutov A. 92. Yusuf M. (G)	11. Adriano 5. Bulat M. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 28. Diaz J. 66. Konstantopoulos A. 10. Lopez I. 39. Madrzyk J. (G) 2. Mosor A. 17. Rocha L. 23. Struski K.
Coaches
Tunchev A.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Barath P. ⚽,
35', Racovitan B. 🟨,
44', Barath P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Yusein S. ↓, Vutov A. ↑,
48', Nikolov G. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Vutov A. (Pen),
60', Ameyaw M. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
60', Pienko T. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
66', Karagaren B. ↓, Shinyashiki A. ↑,
66', Velev V. ↓, Gustavo Cascardo ↑,
70', Nikolov G. 🟨,
74', Barath P. ↓, Bulat M. ↑,
79', Brunes J. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
79', Silva J. ↓, Adriano ↑,
80', Idowu D. ↓, Patrick Luan ↑,
85', Kovachev S. ↓, Mane I. ↑,
90+1', Velkovski D. 🟥,
90+3', Lopez I. (Pen),
90+3', 1 - 2, Lopez I. ⚽,
90+5', Shinyashiki A. 🟨,
90+5', Diaz J. 🟨,
90+6', Patrick Luan 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Arda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Raków is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arda Kardzhali
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.08.25	Slavia Sofia - Arda Kardzhali	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
14.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Kauno Žalgiris	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.08.25	Arda Kardzhali - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.08.25	Kauno Žalgiris - Arda Kardzhali	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLWTW
- Raków Częstochowa
UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.08.25	Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
14.08.25	Maccabi Haifa - Raków Częstochowa	0:2 ✺
07.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Maccabi Haifa	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.08.25	Radomiak Radom - Raków Częstochowa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
21.08.25	Raków Częstochowa - Arda Kardzhali	1:0

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